#GateSquare$50KRedPacketGiveaway 1. The long-run convergence — the gold dashed power law prediction and the teal 4-year median have been converging steadily since 2013 and are now essentially on top of each other at ~38–42%. This is arguably the single most compelling empirical confirmation in the book: the 4-year smoothed return is tracking the theoretical prediction from a mathematical model fitted years earlier.

2. Cycle amplitude decay in CAGR terms — peak 1-year CAGRs fell from 27,628% (2011) → 9,900% (2013) → 1,641% (2017) → 1,002% (2021) → 135% (2025). The oscillations are dampening toward the power law baseline, exactly as the residuals chart showed in log units. Here it's in percent terms that any investor can feel.
3. The negative CAGR periods never lasted more than ~18 months — the bear drawdowns (−82%, −72%, −74%) are clearly visible below the zero line but are brief relative to the full cycle. The 4-year median never went negative.
Current readings (Feb 2026):
Theoretical CAGR from power law: 39.7%
4-year rolling median: 41.8%
About 2 % discrepancy, the closest they've been in the dataset's history