Goldman Sachs comments on "Spring Festival Gala Robot": Significant hardware advancements drive application adoption, and the key in the future is foundational AI

Goldman Sachs states that the humanoid robot performance at the 2026 CCTV Spring Festival Gala marks a significant advancement in China’s robotics hardware engineering, but the true AI capabilities remain to be tested.

According to ChaseWind Trading Desk, in its latest research report released on February 21, Goldman Sachs noted that the Year of the Horse Spring Festival Gala has become an important platform to showcase Chinese humanoid robot technology. Performances by private companies such as Yushu (Unitree), Noetrix, Magic Lab, and Galbot demonstrated major progress in hardware and full-body control. However, highly choreographed performances are difficult to fully assess their underlying AI capabilities.

Goldman Sachs maintains its forecast of 51,000 units of humanoid robots shipped globally in 2026 and 76,000 in 2027, representing several times growth compared to 15,000–20,000 units in 2025. In the short term, related supply chain stocks may benefit, but investors should be cautious of first-quarter performance pressures and rising raw material costs. In the long term, the development speed of general AI capabilities will determine the industry’s upward potential, with “world model” technology pathways worth close attention.

Spring Festival Gala Stage: A Concentrated Display of Hardware Capabilities

Goldman Sachs believes that the Year of the Horse Spring Festival Gala is a concentrated showcase of China’s robotic capabilities.

Yushu’s robots demonstrated multi-machine coordination and synchronized movements, with smooth motion and dynamic balance, showing fault recovery abilities similar to human agility across various scenes. Magic Lab and Galbot’s robots displayed impressive dexterity, capable of executing complex tasks precisely. Noetrix emphasized its bionic robots’ seamless collaboration with humans and expressive movements.

Analyst Jacqueline Du pointed out that these robots’ coordination and stability in high-difficulty choreography prove rapid improvements in actuator technology, sensor integration, and advanced control algorithms.

However, Spring Festival Gala performances are typically pre-programmed and carefully rehearsed, designed to showcase robots’ maximum potential under controlled conditions. They often rely on predefined trajectories and reactive behaviors rather than real-time autonomous decision-making in unpredictable environments. Therefore, while physical execution is flawless, their cognitive intelligence, adaptability, and true ability to learn and operate independently in unstructured environments remain unclear.

Spring Festival Effect: Promoting Social Awareness and Application Expansion

Despite doubts about AI capabilities, Goldman Sachs believes that the Gala’s huge viewership offers a valuable opportunity to enhance social awareness and broaden public understanding of humanoid robots. For many, this may be their first close encounter with such advanced machines, helping to demystify the technology and potentially alleviate anxieties about robots.

Goldman Sachs states that by showcasing humanoid robots in entertainment and engaging contexts, the Gala helps foster more positive perceptions and acceptance of these technologies. Increased visibility is crucial for expanding potential applications beyond traditional industrial settings. As the public becomes more familiar and accepting of humanoid robots, opportunities will open for their integration into service industries, entertainment, education, and even personal assistance.

Goldman Sachs forecasts that global shipments of humanoid robots will reach 51,000 units in 2026 and 76,000 in 2027, several times higher than the 15,000–20,000 units in 2025.

This growth will mainly be driven by dedicated commercial deployments, such as security patrols in public spaces and customer service roles (hotels, banks, museums, exhibition centers, car dealerships, and supermarkets). These applications effectively leverage existing task planning, mobility, and interaction capabilities while avoiding the complexity of highly dexterous operations.

Long-term Key: General AI Capabilities and “World Models”

Goldman Sachs expects that the market may react positively to major humanoid robot supply chain stocks in the coming trading days, anticipating application surges in the next few years.

However, Goldman Sachs warns investors to exercise caution, as first-quarter 2026 performance (to be announced in March-April) may pose challenges for stocks heavily reliant on China’s electric vehicle market within the robotics supply chain.

Additionally, inflation in raw material costs, especially copper, silver, gold, and storage chips, poses potential risks to recent profit margins. Investors chasing hot topics should carefully consider these fundamental pressures.

Goldman Sachs emphasizes that long-term development of general AI capabilities will be crucial, driven by effective data and model strategies, which will determine the potential upside relative to the baseline of 1.38 million units expected by 2035.

Particularly, Goldman Sachs focuses on the “world model” approach, involving internal learning representations or simulations of the environment. This enables AI agents to understand how the world works, predict future states, and plan actions without continuous physical interaction. Such models allow robots to reason causally, paving the way for more general, capable, and safer machines.

Risk Warning and Disclaimers

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