Zheshang Strategy: Mixed Long and Short Positions with a Slightly Stronger Volatility, Hold and Observe, Be More Bullish and Less Active

1. Market Overview One Week Before the Holiday (February 9–13, 2026)

(1) Major Indices: The market surged then pulled back; the main broad-based indices showed a pattern of “weak large caps, strong small caps.”
(2) Sector Observation: Technology growth stocks clearly strengthened, while consumer finance performed relatively weakly.
(3) Market Sentiment: Trading volume in Shanghai and Shenzhen decreased week-over-week; stock index futures contracts were generally trading at a discount.
(4) Capital Flows: Margin financing and securities lending balances declined week-over-week; nonferrous metal ETFs experienced the largest net inflow.
(5) Quantitative “Black Technology”: Valuation levels of major indices slightly increased.

2. Weekly Market Attribution

(1) China’s social financing incremental volume in January was 7.22 trillion yuan, with M2 money supply growing 9% year-over-year.
(2) The State Administration for Market Regulation interviewed seven platform companies on February 13.
(3) The U.S. Supreme Court ruled that the Trump administration’s large-scale tariffs were illegal.
(4) U.S. January CPI increased 2.4% year-over-year.

3. Next Week’s Market Outlook

Looking ahead, during the holiday period, overseas markets experienced mixed factors: on one hand, the FTSE A50 futures rose 1.39%, the Nasdaq and S&P 500 increased 1.51% and 1.07% respectively, the Hong Kong AI application sector surged significantly, and offshore RMB exchange rate broke above 6.89; on the other hand, the Hang Seng Index and Hang Seng Tech Index declined 0.58% and 2.78%, with internet giants Alibaba, Baidu, Meituan, and others performing poorly. Considering the pre-holiday A-shares surged then pulled back, with a generally volatile trend, and given the mixed positive and negative factors during the holiday, combined with historical post-Lunar New Year fund re-entry demand, we estimate the probability of a trend-following opportunity in A-shares after the holiday is relatively low. In the short to medium term, the market is likely to experience a biased strong oscillation, with some opportunities probably emerging in sectors with overseas exposure such as AI applications and robotics linked to the Spring Festival Gala. From a quarterly perspective, we remain optimistic about a “systematic slow bull” opportunity.

In terms of allocation, based on the judgment of “mixed bullish and bearish signals with a bias toward strong oscillation, holding positions and observing more, trading less,” we recommend: timing-wise, short-term positions should be cautious, waiting for opportunities; medium-term positions should continue to hold with a “systematic slow bull” mindset. Sector-wise, focus on relatively low-position securities, building materials, banks, and other sectors, while short-term attention should be paid to AI applications and robotics. Stock-wise, prioritize stocks that have lagged since the “924 market” and have potential for catch-up, especially those able to stay above the annual moving average.

4. Risk Warning

Domestic economic recovery may fall short of expectations; global geopolitical uncertainties remain.

(Article source: Zheshang Securities)