Spring Festival Spending: How Much "Power" Is Sufficient?

The Year of the Horse Spring Festival is coming to an end. What is the “gold content” of this year’s “longest holiday in history” in terms of consumption? As a barometer for observing the consumption potential at the start of the 14th Five-Year Plan, we find that this year’s long holiday has shown new changes such as peak passenger flow, diversified travel, burst of services, and regional softness. These also offer insights into new ideas for boosting consumption from the upcoming Two Sessions in March.

This year’s Spring Festival travel season demonstrates a “horsepower-filled” travel scene. Data from the Ministry of Transport shows that the total cross-regional population flow and daily peak during the Spring Festival around 2026 have both broken historical records. Under the combined effects of the “longest holiday in history” and warmer weather, the pattern of population movement is more vibrant than in 2025. However, beyond the overall increase, subtle changes in residents’ travel rhythm and consumption choices are providing key clues for the domestic demand trend at the beginning of the year.

The biggest highlight of this Spring Festival travel season is the reflection of structural changes through residents’ travel rhythm. Besides the traditional “homecoming rush” before New Year’s Eve, another peak appeared after the second day of the Lunar New Year. We believe there are two possible reasons behind this:

First, the trend of “returning to work early” is emerging. After the Spring Festival, the net inflow index of population in first-tier cities is accelerating, while outflows from lower-tier cities are increasing. This reflects that, given the later timing of this year’s Spring Festival, the post-holiday return-to-work rhythm has been relatively advanced.

Second, the segmented vacation mode of “reunion first, then travel” continues to gain popularity. Data from Tongcheng Travel shows that this year’s “segmented New Year” phenomenon is more popular than in previous years. The number of air travelers taking more than two flights during the holiday is expected to increase by over 50% year-on-year. Many residents are choosing to combine “returning home for family visits” with “going out for vacations.” This also indicates that a large portion of residents are willing to pay for extended holidays.

The lengthening of the holiday has also spurred diverse consumption scenarios. Not only has the travel window been extended, but a variety of consumption scenes have emerged. Outbound travel has also seen a significant rise. During the Spring Festival, the number of flights to Hong Kong, Macau, Taiwan, and international destinations was notably higher than in 2025. Thailand, South Korea, and Europe have become the top three “hot” destinations.

Meanwhile, policy support is injecting new momentum into the release of consumption potential. Taking Hainan as an example, during this year’s Spring Festival, hotel room prices were regulated through a combination of market adjustment and government control, strictly implementing price transparency requirements. The price increase in Hainan was much smaller than in previous years, further boosting residents’ willingness to spend. Coupled with the continued relaxation of duty-free policies, the island’s duty-free sales during the first four days of the Spring Festival reached 970 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 15.8%, serving as a vivid example of policy-backed consumption.

Through this “mass migration” of people, the heat of consumption is also rising. During the first four days of the holiday, the daily sales of key retail and catering enterprises nationwide increased by 8.6% compared to the same period in 2025. In the first three days, the foot traffic and revenue of 78 key pedestrian streets (commercial districts) monitored by the Ministry of Commerce grew by 4.5% and 4.8%, respectively, laying a foundation for a strong start to the year’s consumption.

Particularly noteworthy is that service consumption is “full of vitality.” During the first three days, domestic travel consumption on major platforms increased by 4.5% year-on-year. Benefiting from free highway policies during the holiday and the rapid expansion of the nationwide charging pile network, car rental orders also increased by 26% during the same period.

However, not all sectors are basking in the warmth of travel fever. Large-scale consumption remains relatively “horsepower-limited.” In contrast to the high enthusiasm for travel, the recovery pace of some bulk and optional consumption remains cautious and segmented. Although the 62.5 billion yuan allocated for “old-for-new” replacements has been issued early, sales of home appliances, automobiles, and other categories remain sluggish, and policy dividends need further release. Since 2026, sales of major home appliances have been underwhelming, and passenger car sales are also at historically low levels for the same period, reflecting residents’ cautious approach to big-ticket purchases.

More intriguing is this year’s “Spring Festival” box office performance. Due to factors such as film quality and themes, the box office revenue and moviegoer numbers during this year’s Spring Festival are among the lowest in recent years, failing to replicate the blockbuster success of last year’s “Nezha 2.” This gap further confirms that, as residents’ consumption willingness steadily recovers, the quality of supply and content innovation have become key variables in transforming potential demand into actual consumption.

Risk warning: Future policies may fall short of expectations; changes in the domestic economic situation may be more than anticipated; export fluctuations may exceed expectations.

Source: Tao Chuan

Risk warning and disclaimer

Market risks exist; investment should be cautious. This article does not constitute personal investment advice and does not consider individual users’ specific investment goals, financial situations, or needs. Users should consider whether any opinions, viewpoints, or conclusions in this article are suitable for their particular circumstances. Invest accordingly at their own risk.