How will the A-shares market perform after the Spring Festival? Based on historical patterns, these three major sectors have a higher probability of rising. Key beneficiary stocks are summarized.

Caixin News, February 23 (Editor: Li Chen) — Choice data shows that over the 20-year period from 2006 to 2025, the probabilities of the Shanghai Composite Index rising within the first 5, 10, 20, and 30 days after the Spring Festival are 75%, 70%, 80%, and 60%, respectively. The median gains and losses are 1.64%, 1.32%, 9.45%, and 3.88%. Although market fluctuations occur, the overall “spring rally” trend is evident.

Guosheng Securities believes that in the past decade, during the four weeks following the holiday—i.e., one month after the Spring Festival—the industries with the highest frequency of performance gains are coal, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, fishery, and national defense military industry. In recent years, the computer industry has taken the lead.

In a research report released on February 7, Hua Yuan Securities’ researchers, including Hao Chen, stated that 2026 may be the final year for the concentrated release of thermal coal capacity. Based on new coal mines coming into production, analysts expect raw coal output to increase by 70 million tons in 2026. The domestic supply and demand situation remains loose, with policies promoting capacity exit or transfer to reserve capacity. If policies are implemented, there is potential for a reduction of 150 million tons in capacity. Additionally, the “14th Five-Year Plan” policy recommends further optimization of energy resource base layouts, and underperforming capacities outside main production areas (non-Shanxi, Shaanxi, Inner Mongolia, and Xinjiang) may restart or exit. Imports of coal are expected to continue decreasing in 2026. Analysts believe the loose market pattern will persist, with policies on supply-side capacity reduction likely to intensify, promoting capacity contraction. The output of clean energy sources such as wind, solar, and hydropower may increase volatility. Investors should focus on (1) policy implementation timing; (2) opportunities arising from weather changes that weaken wind, solar, and hydropower output, thereby boosting coal demand. Currently, coal prices are at a cyclical low. Given the industry’s high inventory levels and the current inventory digestion cycle, attention should be paid to leading coal companies with high dividends, such as China Shenhua, China Coal Energy, and Shaanxi Coal Industry; also consider Yanzhou Coal Mining.

In a research report on agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industries published on February 13 by Wei Hongmei and others from Dongguan Securities, it was stated that the breeding capacity of sows will continue to decline through 2025, and pig supply is expected to gradually decrease in 2026. The pig price is expected to gradually rebound, and profitability in pig farming may improve. There is still room for reduction in breeding sow capacity. Investors should focus on leading pig breeding companies with capacity reduction and profit improvement expectations. For broiler chicken farming, attention should be paid to profit margin improvement opportunities for leading companies. In animal health, focus on companies with strong R&D capabilities and smooth progress. In the pet market, domestic and international markets still have significant growth potential, so attention should be paid to domestically leading companies with growth potential. Key stocks to watch include: Muyuan Foods, Wenshi Foods, Shengnong Development, Lihua Group, Haid Group, China Animal Husbandry Group, Guibao Pets, and Reip Biological.

Shanxi Securities’ analysts, including Luo Zhiwei, released a strategy report on February 5 for the defense and military industry, stating that 2026 marks the beginning of the 14th Five-Year Plan. The construction of new domain and new quality combat capabilities will continue to strengthen. Global geopolitical turmoil will drive a new round of arms races. China’s systematized advanced equipment, tested on the battlefield, will usher in new opportunities to reshape the global military trade market. Multiple new medium and large rockets are scheduled for maiden flights in 2026, and recoverable technology will accelerate breakthroughs. With effective resolution of capacity bottlenecks, commercial space industry will enter an explosive growth phase. Recommended sectors include missile weapon systems, new aerospace equipment, unmanned systems, and commercial space industry chains. The new military revolution mainly focuses on three aspects: precise guidance of munitions, unmanned weaponry, and networked battlefield systems. Within these sub-industries, the key recommendations are missile weapon systems, new aerospace equipment, and unmanned systems. As capacity bottlenecks are gradually removed and satellite internet deployment accelerates, commercial space will experience an industry explosion, becoming one of the main investment themes in 2026.

Analysts recommend focusing on key companies: for missile weapon systems, Northern Navigation is recommended. Northern Navigation develops and produces core control modules for precision-guided weapons, occupying a central position in the industry chain. For new aerospace equipment, China Aviation Shenfei and China Aviation High-Tech are recommended. China Aviation Shenfei’s successful development of the J-35 stealth fighter makes it the third company worldwide capable of mass-producing qualified stealth fighters, with significant future domestic and export demand. China Aviation High-Tech is a key developer of aerospace carbon fiber prepreg materials, occupying a core position in the carbon fiber industry chain, responsible for R&D, production, and supply of prepreg materials for various new aerospace systems, with a monopoly advantage. For unmanned systems, Inner Mongolia First Machinery Group is recommended. As a leader in ground combat equipment, it has deepened integration with tactical UAV companies through equity holdings, creating integrated air-ground unmanned combat systems, which could bring growth opportunities for its ground equipment products. For commercial space, companies such as Aerospace Electronics and Guobo Electronics are recommended. Aerospace Electronics is a major supplier of space-grade and missile connectors and data bus products in China, supporting key electronic components for launch vehicles, directly benefiting from the booming commercial space industry. Guobo Electronics is a leading domestic provider of active phased array T/R modules, which are core components for low-earth orbit satellite payload platforms. The company has already delivered multiple T/R modules to satellite customers.