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CITIC Securities: PPI Year-over-Year May Turn Positive in Q2 2026 Under Optimistic Scenario, Full-Year Trend "First Up, Then Down"
CITIC Securities pointed out that in January 2026, the month-on-month PPI reading exceeded market expectations, while the year-on-year CPI was below market expectations. The month-on-month PPI increased by 0.4%, marking the highest growth rate since May 2022, with price increases in the non-ferrous metals, electronics, and chemical industries potentially being the three main driving forces. Looking ahead, the possibility of imported inflation emerging is a key issue to monitor in the 2026 PPI. Based on an optimistic outlook for non-ferrous metal prices in the first half of the year and adjustments to crude oil price expectations, CITIC Securities forecasts that under an optimistic scenario, the year-on-year PPI may turn positive in the second quarter of 2026, with the overall trend for the year being “rising first, then falling.”