New Bitcoin Lows: A New Perspective on the Market Cycle

Michaël van de Poppe, a respected figure in the cryptocurrency space, has drawn attention to Bitcoin’s value relative to gold as an important indicator of broader market trends. While both Bitcoin and gold are considered “Tangible Assets,” van de Poppe believes that observing Bitcoin’s value against gold, rather than solely against the US dollar, will provide deeper insight into its true drivers within the financial ecosystem. Is Bitcoin Hitting an All-Time Low Compared to Gold? According to van de Poppe, Bitcoin has reached an all-time low relative to gold. Conversely, some investors believe that Bitcoin’s decline occurred after peaking against the dollar in October 2025. However, van de Poppe asserts that Bitcoin’s peak relative to gold happened in December 2024, marking a continuous decline since then. If this interpretation is correct, Bitcoin has been in a bear market against gold for approximately 14 months. Do Historical Patterns Offer Deep Insights? Van de Poppe emphasizes that past Bitcoin bear markets, when compared to gold, typically lasted around 14 months. Historical downturns, especially from November 2013 to January 2015, December 2017 to February 2019, and April 2021 to June 2022, have confirmed this trend. These periods ended with deep lows in the weekly RSI of the Bitcoin/gold ratio, signaling upcoming bullish trends. Recent data shows the weekly RSI reaching record lows, reminiscent of previous cycle bottoms and indicating potential reversals. Does the US Dollar Fully Reflect the Broader Picture? Van de Poppe reevaluates the October 2025 peak of Bitcoin in dollars, suggesting that this rally is not solely due to Bitcoin’s intrinsic strength. Other factors, such as the simultaneous rise of gold and silver, may have played a significant role. Analyzing chart patterns, he notes that Bitcoin is approaching historic lows against gold, which has often signaled long-term bullish trends. He believes that expecting Bitcoin to continue declining would contradict historical cycles. In the past, when Bitcoin was at its lowest relative to gold, strategic buying opportunities often emerged. Van de Poppe suggests that the current situation may be similar. His analysis offers valuable insights for those assessing potential directions for Bitcoin relative to other established markets. The current move indicates a strategically important phase for both traders and Bitcoin enthusiasts. “There is a significant opportunity in evaluating Bitcoin beyond its dollar value, especially when considering its position relative to gold,” van de Poppe affirms.