📉 XRP AT A CROSSROADS: 3-WEEK ETF STREAK MASKS A 95% DROP IN INSTITUTIONAL CONVICTION AS THE $1.25 SUPPORT LOOMS

XRP is navigating a complex and precarious market environment as of late February 2026. While the asset has officially recorded three consecutive weeks of positive ETF inflows, a deeper look reveals that institutional demand has cratered by 95%, falling from $36.04 million to just $1.84 million in the latest weekly reporting period. This slowdown has left XRP trading below its weekly VWAP a key benchmark for institutional cost basis signaling that large players are currently underwater. With a hidden bearish divergence forming on the charts, the immediate fate of XRP’s price depends on whether its $1.259 cost-basis support cluster can withstand a potential breakdown.

The Institutional Mirage: Weakening Conviction Despite Inflows

While the “three-week streak” headline sounds bullish, the underlying trend suggests institutional interest is rapidly drying up.

• Inflow Collapse: The staggering 95% drop in weekly ETF inflows indicates that the initial wave of institutional excitement is fading.
• VWAP Rejection: Since February 18, XRP has failed to reclaim its weekly Volume Weighted Average Price (VWAP). Historically, falling below this level has triggered corrections as deep as 26%, as institutions become reluctant to add to losing positions.
• Bearish Divergence: A hidden bearish divergence has appeared where the RSI is forming higher highs while the price is forming a lower high. This disconnect typically warns that the current price recovery is structurally weak and prone to a downtrend extension.

Retail Resilience: The “Dip Buying” Buffer

Despite the institutional retreat, on-chain data shows that retail and mid-tier participants are actively preventing a total collapse.

• Rising Money Flow: The Money Flow Index (MFI) has been trending upward even as XRP’s price weakens. This divergence shows that capital is still entering the asset at lower levels, as dip buyers absorb the selling pressure.
• Exchange Outflow Stabilization: While exchange outflows have dropped by 41% from their peak, they remain positive at approximately 41.69 million XRP daily, indicating that a subset of investors continues to move coins into cold storage.

The $1.25 Floor: Final Support for the Bullish Case

XRP is currently treading water near its $1.379 support, but the real technical “line in the sand” is much deeper.

• Cost Basis Cluster: Heatmap data identifies a massive support wall at $1.259, where over 159 million XRP were previously accumulated. This level represents the final major technical defense; a break below it would expose the asset to much deeper targets at $1.162 and $1.024.
• Upside Requirements: For a bullish invalidation, XRP must first reclaim $1.439 and achieve a daily close above the $1.670 resistance. Until then, the market remains locked in a battle between fading institutional strength and persistent retail accumulation.

Essential Financial Disclaimer

This analysis is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or legal advice. Reports of a 95% drop in weekly XRP ETF inflows and the $1.259 cost-basis support are based on market analysis and on-chain data from Glassnode as of February 21, 2026. Technical patterns like hidden bearish divergence and VWAP are probabilistic and do not guarantee future performance. XRP remains an extremely volatile asset; the $1.42 valuation is subject to rapid shifts, and a breakdown below the $1.259 support could lead to significant capital loss. Always conduct your own exhaustive research (DYOR) and consult with a licensed financial professional before making significant investment decisions in Ripple or XRP.

Do you think the retail “dip buyers” can hold the $1.25 floor until institutions return, or is the 95% ETF drop a sign that the big money has moved on?