2026 Price Outlook: CPI is expected to gradually rise, and PPI may turn positive

2026-02-22 08:05:20

In 2025, the national consumer price index (CPI) remained flat compared to the previous year, while the producer price index (PPI) declined by 2.6%. Looking ahead to this year’s price trends, can the rebound of CPI and PPI continue? Will PPI turn positive, and if so, when? The macro team of Caixin Research Institute believes that from a macro perspective, four leading indicators—converging supply and demand gap, M1 growth bottoming out and beginning to recover, improvement in residents’ employment stabilization, and the upward trend in capacity cycle—are collectively laying the foundation for a price rebound. In terms of price composition, the “base effect” on CPI and PPI in 2026 will be significantly higher than the previous year; at the same time, in the first year of the 14th Five-Year Plan, policies to expand domestic demand and supply-side “anti-involution” measures are expected to work together to support the emergence of “new inflationary factors,” leading to a moderate price recovery. Therefore, the upward trend of prices in 2026 is clear. (The Paper)

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