Today's economic data is the "thermometer" of global liquidity. How will crypto assets respond?

Today, the global financial markets will release a series of major economic data points, which serve as a “thermometer” to gauge the health of global liquidity. For the cryptocurrency market, this data feast could directly determine the market trend in the coming days.

European Session: Can Inflation Persist or Ease?

The Eurozone CPI (Consumer Price Index) data at 18:00 is the precursor to this round of data releases. This indicator directly relates to whether the European Central Bank has the courage to continue easing liquidity.

If inflation remains high, market optimism about a global rate cut cycle will significantly cool down. This is not good news for all risk assets, including Bitcoin and Ethereum—because a loose liquidity environment is usually a key factor in driving up risk asset valuations. Conversely, if inflation shows signs of retreat, it could pave the way for subsequent easing policies.

U.S. Session: Employment Strength as a Focus

During the evening, two sets of data are particularly noteworthy:

The 21:15 ADP Employment Change (Small Non-Farm Payrolls) and the 23:00 ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI will be decisive factors influencing market sentiment. Currently, the market is highly sensitive to U.S. economic conditions—any signals indicating an overheated labor market will reinforce expectations that the Fed will keep rates steady, thereby constraining the upside for crypto assets.

It’s a paradox: the stronger the U.S. economy, the less likely rate cuts become; the less likely rate cuts are, the stronger the dollar, and the more pressure on risk assets.

Fed Officials’ Statements: A Double-Check Mechanism

At 01:00 the next day, Fed official Bostic will deliver a speech. After the release of major economic data, any remarks he makes about interest rate outlooks will be interpreted and amplified by the market word-for-word. This speech essentially acts as a “second confirmation” of previous data—either reinforcing tightening expectations or injecting some easing optimism into the market.

The Liquidity Thermometer and the Link to Crypto Assets

How do the hot and cold changes in economic data reflect on the crypto market? The logical chain is as follows:

Data shows overheating economy → Rate cut expectations retreat → U.S. dollar appreciation expectations rise → Crypto assets come under pressure and decline

The reverse logic also holds: Weakening data → Rate cut expectations increase → U.S. dollar weakens → Risk assets get a breather

This is why economic data is called the “thermometer” of global liquidity. Every fluctuation directly influences capital flows into risk assets or safe havens.

Currently, market expectations for main cryptocurrencies like BTC, ETH, and BNB are essentially betting on the economic cycle and central bank policy directions. Today’s data will provide the latest “thermometer” reading—Is liquidity tightening, or are there signs of a top and loosening? The answer will directly impact market sentiment in the near future.