BTC on yearly candles: the ascending channel structure as the key to understanding the correction

Analyzing the long-term movement of Bitcoin requires shifting from short-term timeframes to the bigger picture. The annual candles reveal the true logic of the market — the logic that separates noise from signal. BTC’s structure remains within an upward parallel channel. This is not just a nice line on the chart; it indicates the market’s intent.

Upward Channel and Its Significance: When Candles Confirm Market Intent

BTC’s price action shows movement within a clearly defined corridor. The channel marked in brown on the chart indicates that each upward impulse and pullback are part of a unified structure. The order flow remains bullish — this means that selling pressure isn’t strong enough to break the overall trend.

On the annual candles, the structure shows no signs of breaking. The red current candle is not a trend reversal but a correction phase, natural for healthy growth. Each candle on this timeframe reflects a full year of trading, making their signals particularly significant. Temporary pullbacks are a natural part of the upward process.

History Repeats: The 2022-2025 Cycle as the Basis for Current Analysis

The market operates in cycles. In 2022, a similar situation occurred: a red annual candle formed as a consolidation phase. At that time, the price took liquidity from the 2021 candle and nearly fully closed the imbalance left by the previous period. Afterward, a strong rebound followed.

The final result: from the 2022 low to the 2025 high, Bitcoin increased by +695.58%. This is not an opinion; it’s a recorded fact in history.

Now, in 2026, the situation is unfolding similarly. The price again takes liquidity from the previous year’s candle (2025). The imbalance is partially and effectively closed. The current movement fits entirely within the normal correction framework — exactly as we saw four years ago.

Fibonacci and Decision Zones: Where Does the Correction Stop?

The Fibonacci grid (marked in black on the chart) shows where the price typically retraces during a correction phase. BTC has entered the so-called discount zone — an area where the market undervalues assets below fair value.

The range of this zone is from the 0.5 to 0.79 Fibonacci levels. In practice, the most common market reaction occurs near the 0.705 level. This is not an entry point but a critical decision zone. Here, the market demonstrates whether it remains in an upward structural scenario or intends to reverse.

The current BTC price level is $68.06K (data as of February 22, 2026), corresponding to a deep correction within a defined range. The movement is logical and predictable within the structure we observe.

Structural Perspective: Potential Recovery and Conditions for Its Realization

The wave structure indicates that a long-term breakdown was already confirmed earlier (marked by a black arrow on the chart). The current red candle is precisely the correction we expect after such a breakout. The context remains bullish as long as the upward channel structure remains intact.

If the analogy with 2022 continues to play out, then according to the second Fibonacci grid (blue), the target is at the 2.618 level. This corresponds to approximately $258,000 for BTC.

For comparison: the previous cycle yielded about +498% growth. The current projected potential is approximately +698% from the correction lows. The scale of movements remains comparable, reinforcing the validity of the structural analysis.

What Does a Structural View Mean: From Understanding to Action

This is not a forecast or a guarantee. It’s an observation of how the market organizes its movements according to recurring patterns. The market is in a state of:

• Correction after an impulse
• Within the Fibonacci discount zone
• Within an upward order flow

Many traders lose their bearings precisely at such moments. They wait for the “perfect” entry, look at the chart, and don’t understand where the reference point is. The main reason for this uncertainty is choosing the wrong timeframe. The four-hour chart will show noise. The daily chart creates a sense of anticipation. But only the yearly chart reveals the true structure.

Decisions are made not by belief but by the price reaction in the critical zone. Exactly where candles demonstrate the strength of the structure or show its weakness.