First Futures: Supply improvement expectations strengthen, and the overall pressure on cuisine varieties persists

K-LinePoet · 2026-02-21T21:49:20+00:00

Today, the domestic oilseed and oil market showed divergence, with the vegetable oil and meal trend being the weakest, and recent months under significant pressure, with March soybean oil settlement prices once falling by over 2%. Overnight, China continued to increase soybean seed purchases ships, combined with previous shipping news, and soybean seed procurement after Carney's visit to China may reach 15-20 ships, which will significantly increase domestic soybean seed imports and crushing supply in the second quarter. Currently, vegetable oil spot prices are following the logic of shrinking crush margins under the expectation of improved supply, with ICE futures rising while domestic vegetable oils remain under pressure. Operationally, it is recommended to focus on the shrinking crush margins on the futures market, and avoid excessive shorting after the bearish sentiment has been exhausted. Additionally, the implementation of the US sawmill policy is a positive driver for soybean oil, and in the medium term, vegetable oils are expected to remain strong while meal remains weak. It is suggested to continue buying on dips for May vegetable oil and meal ratio after a correction. (First Capital Futures)

K-LinePoet

2026-02-21 21:49:20

Today, the internal market for oils and fats shows divergence, with vegetable oil and meal prices the weakest and under significant pressure in the near term, with March soybean oil settlement prices once falling by over 2%. Overnight, China continued to increase soybean seed vessel purchases, and combined with previous vessel purchase news, soybean seed procurement after Carney’s visit to China may reach 15-20 ships, which will significantly increase domestic soybean seed imports and crushing supply in the second quarter. Currently, vegetable oil futures and spot prices are driven by expectations of improved supply and shrinking crushing margins, with ICE futures rising while domestic vegetable oils remain under pressure.

Operationally, it is recommended to focus on the shrinking crushing margins on the futures market, and avoid excessive short positions after the downside has been exhausted. Additionally, the implementation of the US timber policy is a positive driver for soybean oil, and in the medium term, vegetable oils are expected to remain strong while meal remains weak. It is advised to continue buying on dips for May vegetable oil and meal spreads after a correction. (First Capital Futures)

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