First Capital Futures: Strong Reality, Weak Expectations, Nickel Price Oversupply Suppresses

Although Indonesia’s nickel supply may experience a significant decline, nickel supply still increases substantially as nickel prices rise sharply. It is reported that by January 2026, domestic refined nickel production will reach 37,700 tons, a month-on-month increase of 20.6%, maintaining a supply surplus. Today, nickel prices declined again, falling below 135,000 yuan, with a drop of over 2%. Currently, this price level is relatively high, with a 120,000 yuan cost support level still 12% higher. Without further bullish stimuli, the supply surplus pressure may continue to suppress nickel prices, and a break below 130,000 yuan is possible. (First Capital Futures)