#我在Gate广场过新年 Why is this cycle so different?

Friends who entered the crypto market in 2017 know that at that time, the entire industry was full of hope and innovative vitality. People firmly believed that these blockchain networks could bring real solutions to the world.
Nine years later, it’s hard to assert that any major crypto ecosystem has truly achieved the sustainable mainstream utility promised back then.

This cycle has harvested countless participants, with most tokens showing almost no performance. More and more people are beginning to see the truth of the market: for the vast majority of crypto assets, it’s essentially a PVP game where participants rely on leverage, liquidations, and capital rotation to profit from others, rather than from the intrinsic value growth of the assets themselves.

Market selection rules have never failed: in the long run, most cryptocurrencies will eventually go to zero. Bitcoin, along with a few high-quality assets in the crypto space, still has a chance to break free from this fate and achieve real value breakthroughs.

Glory or Destruction: The Choice
Path to Glory
Bitcoin achieves a “breakout upgrade”: volatility significantly contracts, retracement levels are far below historical levels, and the previous high region becomes a solid structural support again. Although the cycle peak multiples have shrunk, the stability of the asset has greatly improved, risk-reward ratio is optimized, and it truly becomes a sustainable long-term investment.

Path to Destruction
The four-year cycle framework has completely failed. It’s not that Bitcoin itself is dying, but that the cycle logic maintained for years no longer holds. Volatility remains at historically high levels, but the potential for gains continues to shrink. The previous high no longer provides bottom support, and the growth channels of the past have become relics.
Bitcoin may still experience phased rallies in the future or continue to gain application adoption, but the once-reliable cycle pattern will no longer be the dominant market rule.

The Reset Path
A new demand-driven force emerges strongly, completely breaking the model of diminishing returns, and reshaping Bitcoin’s growth curve. This could come from large-scale structural capital allocation, widespread adoption by sovereign nations, or passive institutional buying forming long-term support.

Additional Hidden Risks: Long-term Protocol Layer Tests
This is not the core factor currently affecting the market, but it’s worth long-term attention: in the long run, Bitcoin must prove it can evolve at the protocol layer, especially with quantum resistance.
The core of the quantum issue concerns the security of Bitcoin ownership and protocol upgrade coordination, not mining itself.
The security of early Bitcoin holdings (like Satoshi’s stash) is the real potential threat.
If Bitcoin hopes to become a long-lasting asset, it must ultimately pass the “protocol upgrade without destroying market trust” test. This is like a background timer; it hasn’t triggered yet but remains an important hidden risk for Bitcoin’s long-term development.

Simple Judgement Criteria
If, after the shakeout, Bitcoin reclaims and stabilizes above $69,000: the cycle structure is preserved, and the path to glory remains highly possible.
If Bitcoin’s price stays between $55,000 and $69,000: the market is under maximum pressure, and the cycle model faces its final test.
If Bitcoin’s price remains below $55,000: under the weak cycle background of 1.8x peak multiples, structural breakdown may occur, and the market pattern is likely to undergo a fundamental shift.

Conclusion
Bitcoin cannot have both characteristics long-term: low-gain assets and high-retracement assets. If risk-adjusted returns still matter, these two cannot coexist permanently.
Currently, Bitcoin approaching $60,000 is a real-time test of this life-and-death boundary. Once the price falls below $50,000, all debates will end, and the market will deliver its final verdict—either moving toward glory or plunging into destruction.