#TrumpAnnouncesNewTariffs The Macro Landscape: BTC vs. Alts

Historically, altcoins bleed against Bitcoin when BTC Dominance (BTC.D) climbs. Currently, BTC.D is hovering around 59.4%, a level that has historically acted as a "ceiling" before a rotation back into alts.
The Bear Case: If BTC.D breaks and holds above 60–62%, altcoins could indeed face another leg down (potentially 30–50%) as liquidity drains toward the "safety" of Bitcoin and stablecoins.
The Bull Case: We are seeing a rare signal—the first bullish candle on the ALT/BTC monthly chart in nearly six years. This suggests that while individual "ghost coins" might die, the high-quality altcoin sector (SOL, ETH, and AI-driven protocols) may be bottoming out.
Current Market Stats (Feb 2026)Is the "75% Bloodbath" Realistic?
A 75% drop from here would mean the total altcoin market cap shrinking to levels not seen since the 2020 doldrums.
Institutional Floor: Unlike 2017 or 2021, the market now has massive institutional rails (ETFs and corporate treasuries). These players tend to buy the "blood," which provides a stickier floor than the retail-only markets of the past.
The "Filter" Effect: We aren't in a "buy everything" market anymore. Capital is becoming surgical. While "zombie alts" from 2021 might lose another 75%, leaders like Solana or Ethereum are showing much stronger relative strength.
Bottom Line: We are in a Macro Rotation Phase. The "Smart Money" isn't exiting crypto; it’s concentrating in BTC until the macro dust (Fed rates, US government shutdown concerns) settles.
Your Move
Avoid Mid-Curve Alts: Projects with no revenue or users are the highest risk for that "75% drop."
Watch the 60% Dominance Level: If BTC.D rejects here, that's your signal that the "Altcoin Exodus" is over.
DCA, Don't All-In: Market sentiment is at "Extreme Fear" (14/100). Historically, this is where fortunes are seeded, but the "dip" can always dip further.