Why Oscar Health (OSCR) Is Down 7.4% After Wider 2025 Losses But Confident 2026 Profit Outlook

Simply Wall St

Wed, February 11, 2026 at 3:16 PM GMT+9 3 min read

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Oscar Health, Inc. has already reported its Q4 and full-year 2025 results, with net loss widening to US$352.61 million for the quarter and US$443.15 million for the year, alongside a basic loss per share of US$1.24 in Q4 and US$1.69 for 2025.

Despite the larger losses and an earnings miss, Oscar Health set out ambitious 2026 guidance, targeting US$18.70–US$19.00 billion in revenue and a return to positive earnings from operations between US$250 million and US$450 million, underpinned by rapid membership growth and cost-efficiency initiatives.

Next, we will examine how Oscar Health’s confident 2026 profitability guidance reshapes its existing investment narrative and longer-term earnings assumptions.

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Oscar Health Investment Narrative Recap

To own Oscar Health, you need to believe its technology-focused model can convert rapid membership and revenue growth into sustainable profitability, despite a history of losses. The latest results deepen near term concerns, with a much wider 2025 net loss, while the key near term catalyst is management’s 2026 profitability target. The biggest immediate risk is that elevated medical costs and risk adjustment pressures prevent Oscar from achieving the earnings from operations it has guided to.

The most relevant update is Oscar’s 2026 guidance, calling for US$18.70–US$19.00 billion in revenue and US$250–US$450 million in earnings from operations. This sits against a backdrop of record membership and efficiency efforts, but also follows a reset year that swung the company back into a sizeable net loss. How investors weigh this guidance against execution risk around medical loss ratios and pricing will likely shape sentiment into 2026.

Yet even if you are encouraged by Oscar’s confident 2026 outlook, investors should be aware that rising medical costs and shifting subsidies could still…

Read the full narrative on Oscar Health (it’s free!)

Oscar Health’s narrative projects $12.4 billion revenue and $245.4 million earnings by 2028. This requires 4.9% yearly revenue growth and a $406.6 million earnings increase from -$161.2 million today.

Uncover how Oscar Health’s forecasts yield a $15.78 fair value, a 22% upside to its current price.

Exploring Other Perspectives

OSCR 1-Year Stock Price Chart

Before this report, the most optimistic analysts were already banking on about US$13.8 billion of revenue and US$574.6 million of earnings by 2028, which is a much bolder profitability story than the more cautious consensus and may look either more realistic or more stretched once this latest loss and guidance are fully digested.

Story Continues  

Explore 22 other fair value estimates on Oscar Health - why the stock might be worth 11% less than the current price!

Build Your Own Oscar Health Narrative

Disagree with existing narratives? Create your own in under 3 minutes - extraordinary investment returns rarely come from following the herd.

A great starting point for your Oscar Health research is our analysis highlighting 2 key rewards that could impact your investment decision.

Our free Oscar Health research report provides a comprehensive fundamental analysis summarized in a single visual - the Snowflake - making it easy to evaluate Oscar Health's overall financial health at a glance.

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_ This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned._

Companies discussed in this article include OSCR.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly._ Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com_

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