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Market Summary for Today—Is it Currently a Good Time to Short?

Today, Bitcoin finally showed some strength. After falling to around 65600 in the early hours, it rebounded strongly, surging over 2000 points, with a high rebound to the 68200 level. It then topped out and pulled back, followed by a wave of decline in the evening; ETH performed weaker, essentially "absent" from this rebound, with a high only reaching $1972, now closing at $1943. So, is it currently a good time to short? I believe short-term yes.

1. Technical Indicators:

On the 4-hour chart, Bitcoin failed to break through the long-term moving average. After touching the upper band of the Bollinger Bands, it surged higher then pulled back. The RSI showed overbought signals, indicating the market remains weak; on the daily chart, the market is still in a consolidation after the rebound from 59900, forming a flag pattern. The high point of this rebound did not reach the middle band of the daily Bollinger Bands, and the move ended abruptly at 68200 with a turn downward, indicating the bulls are only testing the waters, and the market remains predominantly bearish.

On the weekly chart, with only two days left before the weekly close, if it closes again with a bearish candle, then five consecutive weekly bearish candles would indicate an extremely weak trend.

2. News Factors

1. The Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates in March is almost a certainty now. Trump emphasized a strong dollar strategy, with funds expected to flow back into the dollar and other stable income assets in the short term. Currently, the negative news has not fully materialized, but it is expected to continue exerting pressure on the market in the short term.

2. The US-Iran situation shows signs of deterioration. Trump issued a final ultimatum to Iran, stating an agreement must be reached within ten days, and there are rumors that the US may carry out military strikes on Iran this weekend. These negative factors are like the Sword of Damocles hanging over the bulls, creating a strongly bearish atmosphere.

3. Capital Flow

Regarding capital, the Spring Festival holiday is about to end, and a large amount of funds from China are expected to flow back into the stock market or the real economy. This outflow of funds will accelerate the decline of the market.

💡My Trading Strategy: I have already opened a short position around 67500. Moving forward, closely monitor three key levels: whether the price will break below 65500—if it does, a new downward wave will begin, establishing a short-term bearish trend; whether there will be support near the lower band of the weekly Bollinger Bands around 63700; and the next support level is near the lower band of the daily Bollinger Bands at approximately 62170.