Understanding the Small Modular Reactor Bet: Is NuScale Power Worth Your Money?

NuScale Power’s recent sharp decline represents far more than a simple stock price correction—it reflects a fundamental tension between investor sentiment and underlying business reality. The company’s 55% drop in value over just three months tells an important story about how markets fluctuate between enthusiasm and despair, particularly when it comes to emerging energy technologies. But beneath this market volatility lies a more nuanced question: can small modular reactor technology reshape the nuclear industry, and does NuScale have what it takes to lead that transformation?

The Technology Behind Small Modular Reactors and NuScale’s Vision

Small modular reactors represent a fundamental shift in how nuclear power could be deployed and scaled. Unlike traditional site-built reactors that require enormous upfront capital and years of construction, small modular reactors would be manufactured in controlled factory environments and then transported to deployment sites. This factory-based approach theoretically reduces production costs, accelerates timelines, and improves safety standards through standardized construction.

NuScale Power’s business strategy hinges entirely on proving this technology works commercially. The company has accumulated consultant fees while advising RoPower, a Romanian utility company exploring a power plant configuration using six NuScale units. However, NuScale hasn’t yet built a single reactor or closed a commercial sale—both critical milestones that remain years away. The company initially expected RoPower’s final purchase decision in early 2026, but that timeline has now shifted to late 2026 or early 2027, adding an extra layer of execution uncertainty.

This delay reflects a broader reality: large capital investment projects in the energy sector frequently encounter scheduling challenges. Still, the postponement underscores NuScale’s core vulnerability. The company lacks revenue diversification and depends heavily on the RoPower contract materializing. If this flagship customer relationship fails to convert, the path forward becomes substantially more difficult.

Market Sentiment vs. Fundamental Business Risk

To understand what NuScale’s stock price tells us, it helps to consider Benjamin Graham’s concept of “Mr. Market.” Graham’s famous metaphor describes an imaginary business partner whose mood swings dramatically from one day to the next—sometimes offering inflated prices, other times desperate to unload assets at bargain rates. Most days, Mr. Market settles somewhere in between. The real skill in investing lies in recognizing Mr. Market’s emotional extremes and acting accordingly.

Currently, Mr. Market appears deeply pessimistic about NuScale Power. A 50%+ decline in three months signals that investor confidence has evaporated. For many, this collapse seems like a warning signal: stay away until the company proves it can execute. For others, it represents exactly the kind of contrarian opportunity that emerges when fear dominates pricing.

The tension here reflects genuine business risk. NuScale remains a money-losing startup attempting to commercialize unproven technology. Conservative investors should genuinely question whether now is the time to participate. The company has no revenue stream from reactor sales, operates at a loss, and faces execution challenges that could easily derail the entire venture.

However, this same risk profile appeals to a different investor psychology. If small modular reactor technology ultimately gains traction—either through regulatory approval, customer adoption, or energy policy tailwinds—early investors who bought during pessimism could see substantial returns. History offers compelling examples. Netflix’s 2004 recommendation would have turned a $1,000 investment into over $500,000. Nvidia’s 2005 entry turned $1,000 into more than $1.1 million by 2025. Both required investors to embrace companies and technologies others doubted.

Who Should Actually Consider NuScale Power?

The investment decision hinges less on whether small modular reactor technology has a future and more on your personal risk tolerance and conviction level.

For risk-averse investors, the case for avoidance seems clear. NuScale has not demonstrated commercial viability, the RoPower timeline keeps pushing right, and the company burns cash without meaningful revenue. Waiting for additional business milestones—even a signed commercial contract—represents the prudent approach. There’s no shame in avoiding high-risk startup investments, especially when other opportunities exist.

For aggressive investors who genuinely believe nuclear power will expand in the coming decades and that small modular reactors will play a meaningful role in that expansion, the calculus changes. A 55% drawdown from recent peaks, followed by additional pessimism, creates the exact conditions where contrarian investors traditionally find opportunity. This stance requires real conviction that NuScale survives its early development phase and that the addressable market for small modular reactors proves real.

The critical dependency remains execution on the RoPower deal and subsequent commercial deployment. Every month of delay increases risk. Ultimately, only the most risk-tolerant investors should consider NuScale Power today. The company operates in a sector where both tremendous opportunity and legitimate existential risk coexist. Your investment decision should reflect which scenario you actually believe will unfold—and whether you’re prepared to endure significant losses if you’re wrong about small modular reactor adoption rates.