Midweek Pressure Weighs on Lean Hog Futures

GigaBrainAnon · 2026-02-18T00:14:18+00:00

Lean hog futures faced significant selling pressure midweek, with losses of $1.00 to $1.67 per hundredweight. Open interest increased despite declines. USDA data showed mixed signals: national hog prices rose, but overall market conditions indicated selective strength and below-normal slaughter trends. This created a complex scenario for market participants.

GigaBrainAnon

2026-02-18 00:14:18

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Lean hog futures encountered significant midweek selling pressure, with most active contracts recording losses ranging from $1.00 to $1.67 per hundredweight. The midweek weakness extended across the board, though some forward-month contracts managed to hold relatively steady with declines limited to 42 cents. Open interest expanded by 525 contracts, indicating continued participation despite the downward momentum.

Price Declines Across Key Contracts

The largest selling pressure appeared in the most actively traded contracts. February 26 hogs closed at $87.950, representing a $1.100 pullback, while April 26 futures fell more sharply to $95.150, down $1.675 for the session. May delivery also faced midweek losses, finishing at $98.850 after dropping $1.575, suggesting that weakness was distributed throughout the contract curve rather than concentrated in a single timeframe.

USDA Data Shows Mixed Market Signals

Official USDA reporting presented a conflicting picture to the midweek selling. The national base hog price was reported at $86.28 on Wednesday afternoon, reflecting a $1.46 daily gain from the previous session. However, the CME Lean Hog Index advanced just 42 cents to $84.43, suggesting limited follow-through on the price strength. The pork carcass cutout value declined 64 cents to $95.05 per cwt, with only picnic and rib primals trading higher in Wednesday’s PM evaluation. This breakdown indicated selective strength rather than broad-based improvement across retail cuts.

Hog Slaughter Trends Below Seasonal Norms

USDA estimated 493,000 head of federally inspected hogs were slaughtered on Wednesday, bringing the weekly total to 1.391 million head. This volume represented a notable decline compared to historical patterns—5,000 head below the previous week and 55,922 head below the corresponding week in the prior year. The midweek slaughter numbers highlighted ongoing production constraints in the market, even as futures prices faced downward pressure from nearby demand considerations.

The combination of midweek price pressure, mixed cash signals, and reduced slaughter volumes created a complex backdrop for lean hog market participants monitoring the trajectory of lean hog values in the weeks ahead.

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