Rigetti Computing Stock: When Quantum Potential Meets Revenue Reality

Rigetti Computing (NASDAQ: RGTI) presents a paradoxical investment challenge. The company stands at the forefront of quantum computing innovation, having built and operated quantum systems since 2017 and commercially deployed on-premises quantum computing systems with qubit counts between 24 and 84 qubits since 2021. Yet beneath this impressive technological pedigree lies a troubling financial picture that raises serious questions about investment timing.

The Quantum Computing Pioneer With a Revenue Problem

As a legitimate operation in the quantum computing space, Rigetti has achieved something many tech startups cannot: genuine revenue from actual product sales. However, the scale of that revenue tells an uncomfortable story. The company recorded $10.8 million in annual revenue during 2024, but as of the latest reporting, 2025 revenues have reached only $5.2 million through the year-to-date period.

The mathematical reality becomes even more challenging when examining the company’s announced sales pipeline. In late 2025, Rigetti announced two significant sales—two 9-qubit Novera quantum computing systems sold to an Asian technology manufacturing company and a California-based applied physics and artificial intelligence startup. These two transactions are anticipated to generate $5.7 million in revenue, which would effectively double the company’s 2025 bookings. There’s a critical catch: Rigetti doesn’t expect to recognize these revenues until the first half of 2026, and the company has not announced any additional sales since that October announcement.

This revenue timeline creates a concerning implications scenario: unless Rigetti lands additional major sales in the near term, 2025 could finish substantially below 2024 levels. Given the current sales trajectory and the company’s silence on new opportunities, 2026 may face similar headwinds despite the anticipated recognition of the two previously announced contracts.

2025 Numbers Tell a Cautionary Tale

The financial deterioration extends beyond revenue stagnation. While sales have contracted significantly from their 2022 peak, Rigetti’s losses have expanded dramatically—annual losses have quintupled to exceed $350 million. This widening gap between rising losses and falling revenues suggests operational challenges that go beyond typical startup scaling issues.

Wall Street analysts surveyed by S&P Global Market Intelligence see no clear pathway to profitability in the near term. Their consensus forecasts extend only through 2030, and even then, profitability remains uncertain at best. For investors accustomed to growth trajectories, this represents a stark reality check: Rigetti’s quantum computing technology may be cutting-edge, but its business model has not yet proven its viability on any meaningful timeline.

Institutional Confidence vs. Analyst Skepticism

What complicates this bearish narrative is the apparent conviction of major institutional investors. American Assets Investment Management, the Vanguard Group, and BlackRock have each taken positions in Rigetti, with these three institutions collectively holding nearly 20% of outstanding shares. Their presence suggests confidence in the company’s long-term quantum computing potential—a belief rooted in the company’s demonstrated capacity for rapid growth.

The evidence for this growth capacity is real but dated. Between 2020 and 2022, Rigetti nearly quadrupled its annual revenue, demonstrating that quantum computing adoption can accelerate rapidly when conditions align. That 2022 peak marked the high-water mark for the company’s financial trajectory. The subsequent decline suggests that the conditions enabling that growth have deteriorated, at least for the moment.

What Needs to Change for a Recovery

The question facing investors is whether Rigetti can recreate the growth momentum that characterized its performance just a few years ago. Several factors would need to align for a meaningful recovery:

First, the company must demonstrate its ability to close additional major sales beyond the two announced contracts. Landing another significant deal in early 2026 would signal genuine momentum rather than isolated transactions.

Second, Rigetti needs to show that the $5.7 million in expected 2026 revenues from previously announced sales is just the foundation for broader growth, not the extent of its sales capacity. Additional bookings throughout 2026 would be necessary to restore credibility in the company’s growth thesis.

Third, the company should begin demonstrating a pathway toward narrowing its losses or at least stabilizing its cost structure, though profitability may remain years away.

Until these conditions materialize, Rigetti Computing remains a speculative bet rather than a compelling investment opportunity. The quantum computing sector undoubtedly holds transformative potential, and Rigetti possesses genuine technological capabilities. However, capability and commercial viability are not synonymous. The substantial gap between the company’s technical promise and its financial performance means investors should wait for clearer evidence of sustainable revenue acceleration before committing capital to this quantum computing stock.