February 17th Market Analysis

Today, on the first day of the Lunar New Year, the market started to test patience, much like fishing. The bait was well set, the float was jumping up and down, but it was all small fish causing trouble—no real bites, and chasing the order only got you trapped.

Yesterday, Bitcoin formed a bullish candle breaking through a key level. I thought it was a big catch, so I waited for a pullback to go long after confirming stability. But as soon as I threw the line, a sharp drop came, pulling the rod away. Fake breakouts are really frustrating. Then it broke below the triangle range and the 68329 support. I thought it would drop sharply, but it slowly pulled back into the range—stuck in a sideways grind, neither up nor down, just teasing.

Currently, Bitcoin$BTC is still swinging around the 68500 zone. Without volume breakout above the 69100 key neckline, don’t expect a big rally. Only a breakout here can open up space, but the resistance at 70053 is strong—breaking through that is a must. Only after stabilizing above 70053 can it challenge the previous high. In the short term, it’s oscillating narrowly between 69097 and 68329. A break below 68329 could lead to a quick dip, but if it can bounce back and stabilize at 66624, then choosing a direction will be more reliable.

In terms of trading, don’t rush to go long. Wait until volume confirms a steady hold above 69097 before chasing rebounds; if it drops below 68324 with volume and fails to recover, then consider shorting with strict stop-loss. On the hourly chart, if it stabilizes above 69097, watch for a move toward 70053-70778; on the 4-hour chart, if it breaks below 68150, look toward 67082-66015.

$ETH Ethereum is also oscillating around the 1970 zone, like small fish brushing the line with no big action. To rise, it must hold above 2009, with a breakout targeting 2044-2077; if it breaks below 1978, don’t hesitate—go short. A successful retest of the 1926 support can be a light long entry, with a stop-loss below 1896; a rebound to 2072 can be shorted, and if it breaks 2110, exit. Conservative orders are placed at 1869 for longs, with stops at 1829.