Each time the US 10-year bond yield stayed above 4% during this run, we saw only blue chips outperforming, while alts and low-cap stocks experienced failed market rallies drained of liquidity because market attention was elsewhere — not on risk assets broadly, but specifically on the leading ones.

Recently, we’ve seen the same dynamic again. Since April last year, we printed a higher low on the US10Y. Bitcoin and blue chips had another run until October, when Bitcoin together with some leading stocks — printed a top, while the US10Y printed a bottom.
More recently, in early February, the US10Y made another lower high on the macro level, and in that same week Bitcoin corrected from 98k to nearly 58k in a very short period of time.
Now we are nearly back at 4% on the US10Y, which suggests that a shift in liquidity may be about to happen. This could allow low caps to perform as well toward the end of the run, potentially within a small window after losing the 4% level.
However, be aware that this shift is likely to bring significant volatility, since 4% has been an important level for years, acting as a wall between different risk asset regimes.