Robusta Coffee Price Today Faces Pressure from Improving Global Supply Outlook

Robusta coffee prices are sliding sharply today according to Barchart market data, with March ICE robusta down significantly as traders digest a cascade of supply-side improvements that threaten price levels. This week’s decline represents part of a broader pullback, with arabica varieties hitting 5.75-month lows while robusta posted 6-week lows, signaling a market repricing as supply concerns ease across the globe’s two dominant coffee varieties.

Vietnam’s Surging Production and Exports Drive Robusta Price Pressure

Vietnam’s coffee output continues to accelerate, creating headwinds for robusta prices worldwide. The country’s 2025 coffee exports surged 17.5% year-over-year to 1.58 million metric tons, according to Vietnam’s National Statistics Office data reported in early January. Looking ahead, Vietnam’s coffee production is projected to climb 6% in the 2025/26 season to 1.76 million metric tons—a 4-year peak—with the Vietnam Coffee and Cocoa Association projecting potential output could reach 10% higher than the previous crop if weather conditions remain stable.

As the world’s largest robusta producer, Vietnam’s expanding supply directly pressures international robusta prices. Higher volumes from the region mean more robusta coffee entering global supply chains, particularly affecting ICE futures contracts that traders monitor for price direction and market sentiment.

Brazil’s Growing Production Offsets Earlier Drought Concerns

Brazil’s arabica regions received relief from above-average rainfall, easing previous dryness concerns that had supported prices. Minas Gerais, Brazil’s largest arabica-growing area, received 69.8 mm of rainfall during the week ended January 30—117% of the historical average—according to Somar Meteorologia data. This moisture boost prompted Brazil’s crop forecasting agency Conab to raise its 2025 coffee production estimate by 2.4% to 56.54 million bags in December.

Despite higher production forecasts, Brazil’s recent export trends painted a more complex picture. December green coffee exports fell 18.4% to 2.86 million bags, with arabica exports declining 10% year-over-year and robusta exports plummeting 61%, suggesting near-term supply tightness even as production capacity expands.

ICE Inventories Recover, Signaling Market Shift

Recovery in ICE-monitored coffee inventories represents a structural shift that’s weighing on both arabica and robusta prices. Arabica inventories dropped to a 1.75-year low of 396,513 bags on November 18 but rebounded to a 3.25-month high of 461,829 bags by January 7. Similarly, ICE robusta inventories fell to a 13-month low of 4,012 lots on December 10 before recovering to a 2-month high of 4,662 lots, suggesting inventory pressure is easing just as global supplies increase.

This inventory recovery, combined with rising production expectations, creates a bearish backdrop for near-term robusta coffee price trends as traders face a market pivoting from scarcity to abundance.

Global Supply Dynamics Point to Price Headwinds Ahead

The USDA’s Foreign Agriculture Service projected that world coffee production in 2025/26 will increase 2.0% to a record 178.848 million bags. While arabica production is expected to decline 4.7% to 95.515 million bags, robusta production will surge 10.9% to 83.333 million bags—underscoring the structural supply advantages benefiting robusta producers like Vietnam at the expense of price support.

However, the global export picture reveals mixed signals. The International Coffee Organization reported that global coffee exports for the current marketing year (October-September) fell 0.3% year-over-year to 138.658 million bags, suggesting export bottlenecks in certain origin countries even as production capacity grows.

What’s Next for Robusta Coffee Traders

The convergence of rising production, recovering inventories, and surging Vietnamese exports creates a challenging environment for robusta coffee price appreciation. While Brazil’s export slowdown in December offered temporary support, the underlying supply trajectory—with 2025/26 robusta production hitting record levels—suggests prices may face continued pressure in the months ahead. Traders monitoring robusta coffee price today and beyond should watch inventory levels and export flows for signals of market stabilization.