#我在Gate广场过新年 Bitcoin Spring Festival Effect Analysis: Is the Decade-Old Pattern Broken?

Can the trend return to an upward trajectory after being disrupted?
Historically, Bitcoin has generally performed strongly during the Chinese Lunar New Year!
From 2015 to 2024, there have been ten consecutive years of positive returns, but this trend was broken for the first time in 2025.
As the 2026 Spring Festival window opens, the market is widely watching whether this traditional “Red Envelope Rally” will reappear or if the recent correction will continue.

Historical Data Review: Spring Festival as a Typical Upward Window
Looking at historical trading data, Bitcoin has almost always experienced gains around the Chinese Spring Festival over the past decade, with increases ranging from 0.8% to approximately 19.5%. This sustained upward phenomenon is known in the crypto community as the “Spring Festival Rally,” and it has created certain psychological expectations among investors and trading strategies.
This holiday effect is partly due to higher liquidity in Chinese and Asian markets before the Lunar New Year, combined with seasonal factors affecting global market liquidity, often leading to cyclical sentiment-driven movements. Although this effect is not absolutely regular, it has shown statistical significance in historical samples.

2025 Exception: The First Break in the Decade-Old Pattern
However, the 2025 Spring Festival rally did not follow this pattern. Bitcoin’s price dropped from about $74,800 before the festival to $71,200, a roughly -4.8% correction, marking the first break in the “Spring Festival must rise” trend over the past ten years. This abnormality sparked market discussions: is this driven by short-term adjustments, or does it indicate a structural change?
Some believe this is the result of market maturation and changing capital dynamics, rather than a simple absence of holiday effects.

2026 Spring Festival Outlook: Continuation or Rebound?
Entering the 2026 Lunar New Year, Bitcoin’s price hovers around $67,000, remaining in a relatively high range. This has led traders and institutions to focus on whether there will be another significant pre- or post-holiday rally this year. Some investors think that if macro liquidity and market sentiment improve, the “Red Envelope Rally” could still occur;
However, there are also opinions that market structure and participant behavior have changed, and the traditional holiday effect may diminish. This discussion is not purely technical but involves a comprehensive assessment of sentiment, supply and demand, and macro factors.
Regardless of the outcome, this window period provides valuable insights into Bitcoin’s cyclical characteristics.
The Spring Festival rally has worked for several consecutive years, but it was broken last year. Whether the “Red Envelope Effect” will reappear this year depends more on liquidity and market sentiment than on seasonal patterns alone, so caution is still advised for investors.