#我在Gate广场过新年 The Darkest Hour Before Dawn—Bitcoin’s $66,000 Support Line Under Threat, Market Awaits Final “Clearance” in Panic

This morning, the price did not show the anticipated “rebound before CPI data” rush; instead, it slowly bottomed out amid decreasing volume. According to real-time market data at 09:40 AM, the market is undergoing a “boiling frog” confidence test: Bitcoin briefly rebounded above $68,000 yesterday but quickly retreated, currently trading around $66,456, marking the third consecutive day below the $67,000 level. Ethereum’s situation is even more dire, now at $1,948, with the psychological barrier of $2,000 officially broken. Every minor attempt at a rebound is ruthlessly crushed by heavier selling pressure—this is not panic selling, but a slow erosion of confidence.

1. Morning Brief: Risk Aversion Sweeps Globally, Cryptocurrencies as the Most Honest Mirror of “Risk Appetite”
Today’s weakness is not an isolated tragedy of the digital market but a reflection of global capital markets’ synchronized de-risking. When the tide recedes, highly volatile digital assets are the first to be exposed on the beach.
● Nature and Root Cause of the Market: Overnight, the three major US stock indices all closed lower, with the Nasdaq dropping nearly 2% intraday. Precious metals, also labeled as “inflation hedges” like Bitcoin, faced even harsher sell-offs—silver plunged 11% in a single day, platinum and palladium both fell over 5%. This synchronized correction across asset classes completely burst the short-term narrative bubble of “Bitcoin as digital gold.”
The cold, hard fact: in true risk-off moments, capital prefers the dollar, US Treasuries, and Swiss francs—digital currencies are nowhere to be found.
● The Rising Dominance of Stablecoins: The TBO indicator shows all four timeframes of stablecoin market share are strongly bullish. This is the most honest position expression by professional traders—they are pulling real money out of high-volatility assets and into “cash equivalents” waiting for the storm to pass. Once this defensive rotation forms a trend, it’s difficult to reverse in the short term.
● Liquidation Data Reveals Structural Changes: In the past four hours, total liquidations reached $63.12 million, with over 80% long positions. Compared to the brutal liquidations two weeks ago, where 200,000 traders were wiped out, the current liquidation scale is significantly smaller. This indicates that high-leverage positions have been largely cleared, and also suggests that the market’s enthusiasm for pushing longs is waning, replaced by a slow decline amid liquidity drought.
● $63,000 Becomes the New Psychological Battleground:
Technical analysts generally shift their focus to the $63,000 level. If this support fails, a bear flag pattern may be confirmed, with the next technical target at $60,000 or even the $50,000 level warned by Standard Chartered Bank.

2. Technical Analysis: Key Support Levels Unravel Layer by Layer, Market Enters “No Resistance” Bottoming Phase
When short-term supports at $67,000 and $66,500 are broken one after another without strong rebounds, the market has entered a dangerous phase where support levels degrade from “defensive positions” to “psychological markers.” Bitcoin technical analysis: $66,000 is the short-term bull-bear dividing line. On the sensitive 4-hour chart, Bitcoin is forming a clear but dangerous descending flag pattern.
● Short-term Range Shift: Over the past 72 hours, Bitcoin’s core trading range has shifted from $67,000–$68,500 down to $66,000–$67,200. $66,000 is now the most fragile short-term support—not a strong support, but more like a historical signpost reading “Support once existed here.”
● Deadly Combination of Volume and Price: The most alarming signal in this decline is the rebound with no volume and the decline with increased volume. When Bitcoin briefly touched $68,000 yesterday, trading volume was significantly lower than the previous day at the same price level. This indicates that bulls no longer have the willingness or ability to organize an effective counterattack—not that they can’t, but that they don’t dare.
● Market Consensus Shifting Toward $60,000: Standard Chartered Bank explicitly predicts that before Bitcoin revisits $100,000, it may first test the $50,000 level. Data from prediction market platforms show that the probability of Bitcoin dropping to $55,000 first is 58% higher than rising to $84,000. When the most optimistic institutions and the most aggressive traders are lowering their expectations, ignoring this consensus could be costly.
● The Final Barrier of Long-term Trend Lines: From a broader weekly perspective, the $60,000–$62,000 zone is the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement of the upward trend since November 2024, and also the average cost zone for many long-term holders. If this level is broken, the market will enter a “deep water zone” with no historical reference points.

Ethereum Technical Analysis: $2,000 Officially Broken, $2,100 Becomes an Impassable Barrier for Bulls
Ethereum’s chart is evolving into a record of the gradual collapse of bullish confidence.
3. ● The Role of $2,000 from Support to Resistance: In the past week’s repeated battles, the $2,000 level has completely transformed from a “defensive bottom line” into a “rebound ceiling.” Every attempt to reclaim this level ends in faster failure, with $2,100 becoming an unreachable “high-pressure line” for bulls. The early morning quote of $1,948 indicates that Ethereum investors who built positions over nearly three months are now fully in the red.
● On-chain Indicators Enter “Surrender Zone”: Ethereum’s MVRV Z-Score has been in negative territory for several days, a typical signal that the price is below the on-chain average cost. Historically, this is an area where long-term investors start to accumulate, but “undervaluation” and “reversal” are separated by time and suffering.
● Standard Chartered Bank’s $1,400 Bottom Expectation: In its latest report, Standard Chartered explicitly predicts Ethereum may rebound to $4,000 by 2026, but before that, the price could first dip to $1,400 to complete a final shakeout. This is the most pessimistic yet clear short-term target from mainstream institutions.
● Whales’ Leverage Dilemma: On-chain data shows an address holding a 25x leveraged long position on Ethereum. A further drop of about 4% from current levels would trigger a new round of large-scale liquidations. Leverage is not a weapon but a Damocles sword hanging over longs—having cut down on February 6, it is now creaking again.

3. News Analysis: Macro Cold Wave, Regulatory Changes, and Institutional “Cautious Shift”
The core contradiction in the current market has evolved from “When will the Fed cut rates” to a deeper triple-layered skepticism: Is the safe-haven narrative valid? Is the regulatory framework friendly? Where does incremental capital come from?
a. Macro Core: The De-risking Narrative Is Being Disproved Yesterday’s asset price performance was the harshest stress test for Bitcoin’s “digital gold” narrative. When US stocks fell, Bitcoin followed; when precious metals plunged, Bitcoin was not spared. In the face of genuine global risk-off sentiment, Bitcoin showed no independence from gold and instead amplified risk appetite. Ironically, the 30-year US Treasury auction recorded the lowest allotment ratio to primary dealers since 2008, indicating that “smart money” is flowing into traditional safe assets. The voting with capital’s feet is more convincing than any theoretical debate.
b. Regulatory Dynamics: The Fed’s “framework acceptance” signals a trend—digital currencies are being incorporated into more formal and stricter regulatory frameworks. The Fed’s working paper first proposed classifying digital assets as a separate asset class and setting differentiated initial margin weights for derivatives trading. This is an important signal of technical acceptance at the federal level—acknowledging their existence, regulating their risks, rather than allowing unchecked growth. For compliant institutions, this is a long-term positive.
c. Institutional Movements: From “Consensus Bullish” to “Defensive Contraction”
Standard Chartered’s latest forecast clearly reflects a shift in professional financial institutions’ mindset: while maintaining a long-term bullish outlook, they have lowered Bitcoin’s target price to $100,000 in the short term and warned that the market may first bottom at $50,000. More notably, the change in ETF holdings—total assets under management in Bitcoin ETFs have fallen 41% from their peak, and Ethereum ETFs have shrunk 43%. This is not a capital outflow that retail investors can cause alone; behind it is active de-risking by institutional allocations. When the most steadfast buyers start to exit and watch from the sidelines, the market’s pricing anchor also drifts.

4. Market Outlook and Strategy: Seeking Probabilistic Advantages in Despair, Not Precise Bottoms
The current market’s core feature is highly synchronized pessimism. When everyone is discussing “how much further will it fall” rather than “when will it rise,” the mid-term bottom may not be far— but “not far” does not mean “already reached,” nor does it mean “immediate reversal.” In the short term, the market is expected to enter a final wait-and-see period before CPI data release, with volatility possibly further compressed but sharply amplified upon data release.
● Bitcoin: The core observation range has shifted downward to $65,800–$67,200. Focus on the battle around $66,000. If it breaks down effectively, the next technical support is in the $63,000–$64,000 zone. Any rebound that cannot sustain volume above $67,500 is considered a reduction window.
● Ethereum: The core range is $1,900–$2,000. If $1,950 fails, the last short-term barrier is at $1,880 (November 2025 low). The market is mainly weakly linked; hopes for independent movement should be temporarily set aside.

Core Strategies and Recommendations:
1. Acknowledge market weakness, respect trend forces: Do not create stories of “shakeouts” or “trap longs” for declines. The decline itself is the most complete expression of information. Currently, the weekly downtrend is in place; any counter-trend operation is opposing the trend. The safest approach remains light or even zero holdings, observing patiently.
2. Distinguish “Left-side Bottoming” from “Value Investing”: Some investors keep adding during declines under the guise of “long-term optimism.” It’s important to realize—value investing requires a cost advantage and proper timing. Before the trend reverses, each bottoming is “left-side,” leaving room for continued declines. Use phased, small-scale, extended time horizons; this aligns better with current risk-reward profiles than “all-in” at once.
3. Watch CPI data but avoid overtrading: The US January CPI release tonight is the most important macro variable in the short term. But beware—extreme pessimism may cause good news to be ignored and bad news to be exaggerated. Don’t preemptively go all-in on data bets; wait for clear volume and price reactions before making decisions. Certainty outweighs yield.
4. Maintain observation amid panic, build watchlists in silence: The current price zone is the best window for long-term investors to build deep research lists. No need to rush orders, but continuous tracking of quality projects is essential. When market sentiment shifts from “extreme fear” (current 9-20 range) toward “fear,” it’s the right time to consider gradual deployment. Deep research first, then confidence to build positions.

The market bottom is never a specific support line on a candlestick chart, nor a certain round number mentioned by analysts, nor the last level in your re-entry plan. The true bottom is the process where, when panic reaches a point where no one dares to talk about bottoms, the market re-establishes order from the ruins.