#我在Gate广场过新年 Same as a correction, why did Bitcoin crash in 2026 and how is it different from the previous four times?

For Bitcoin, declines and pullbacks have always been normal market phenomena. Looking back at its development history, the four epic pullbacks in 2011, 2013, 2017, and 2021 have already etched clear patterns of volatility.
In early 2026, Bitcoin experienced another significant correction. This decline not only continued the common logic of historical retracements but also had its own unique causes. The following will review the four core pullbacks, analyze the truth behind the 2026 correction, objectively forecast the subsequent trend, and interpret the industry logic behind the fluctuations.
1. Historical Review: An Overview of Bitcoin’s Four Largest Drawdowns (2011-2021)
Since its inception in 2009, Bitcoin’s price volatility has far exceeded that of stocks, funds, and other traditional assets. The four most impactful and dramatic declines occurred in 2011, 2013, 2017, and 2021, each profoundly influencing the industry’s direction.
1. Details of the Four Core Pullbacks

2011: The most extreme correction, nearly “zeroing out” test
Price plummeted from $33 to $2, a 94% drop. At that time, Bitcoin was still in the geek circle, with very poor market liquidity and an immature trading system, making this correction particularly severe. (Source: BTC123.FANS)

2013: Panic correction after initial public exposure
Price crashed from $1150 to $150 (not in the same year), an 87% decline. This year marked Bitcoin’s first large-scale entry into the public eye, but the trading infrastructure was incomplete. Coupled with surging trading volume and network attacks, it triggered a wave of concentrated sell-offs. (Source: BTC123.FANS)

2017: Deep correction after bubble burst
Price fell from $19,000 to $3,200 (not in the same year), an 84% decline. The ICO bubble was wildly inflated, leverage trading was rampant, and after reaching a speculative peak, it burst. However, the decline was significantly less severe than the previous two. (Source: BTC123.FANS)

2021: Rational correction amid regulation and leverage
Price dropped from $69,000 to $15,000 (not in the same year), a 77.58% decline. Leverage issues were prominent, compounded by Elon Musk’s announcement that Tesla would suspend Bitcoin payments and global regulatory adjustments, leading to a deep correction. The market’s maturity was further enhanced. (Source: BTC123.FANS)

2. Commonalities in Pullbacks: Review of Four Major Core Causes
The reasons behind these four corrections are highly concentrated and deeply linked to macroeconomic and industry environments, rather than industry decline itself:
Regulatory adjustments: The core goal of regulations in various countries is to guide industry compliance, not to deny it. Phase-wise adjustments trigger short-term sell-offs.
Market bubbles burst: After speculative capital influx, a rush to exit occurs, and the disappearance of profit effects triggers crashes.
Industry risk events: Hacks, bankruptcies, and other issues directly impact investor confidence.
Macroeconomic environment: Global economic downturns and monetary policy adjustments lead to capital outflows from high-risk assets.

2. Focus on the Present: Core Causes and Market Structure of the 2026 Bitcoin Correction
In early 2026, Bitcoin faced a major correction. This decline was the result of multiple negative factors stacking up, and the internal market also showed a clear risk transmission path.

1. Key Data of the 2026 Correction
From February 5 to 6, 2026, combined with the South Korean exchange incident and precious metals volatility, Bitcoin plunged over 12% within 24 hours, briefly touching the $60,000 mark, the lowest since October 2024. (Source: Nonohkao)
This drop wiped out all gains since Trump’s victory in 2024. In just 24 hours on February 5-6, over 570,000 traders were liquidated globally, with total liquidation amounting to $2.665 billion. (Source: Eastmoney)
As of now, Bitcoin’s price has rebounded significantly from the previous low of $60,000, currently oscillating around $67,000–$69,000.

2. Five Core Causes
Regulatory Uncertainty: The U.S. “Crypto Asset Clarity Act” (CLARITY Act) has been delayed multiple times. Cb withdrew related support statements due to regulatory uncertainty, causing swings in regulatory direction and triggering investor sell-offs. (Source: PANews)
Funding Reversal: The U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF shifted from net buying to net selling, with weekly outflows reaching $1.49 billion. The average cost basis was broken, leading to “surrender sell-offs.” (Source: CoinJie)
Leverage Amplification: Price declines triggered forced liquidation of high-leverage positions, creating a “death spiral” that accelerated the fall.
South Korean Exchange Error: On February 6, 2026, during a promotion, South Korea’s Bit exchange mistakenly credited rewards in Korean won as Bitcoin, issuing 620,000 BTC worth over $44 billion. The platform’s Bitcoin price briefly plunged 17%, and users rushed to sell amid regulatory scrutiny, causing panic globally. (Source: Securities Times)
Macroeconomic and Cross-Market Impact: Volatility in precious metals triggered panic sentiment transmission, compounded by Goldman Sachs’ February 4, 2026 report on global fund sell-offs and the Federal Reserve’s high-interest rate expectations, further suppressing Bitcoin valuation. (Source: BeInCrypto)
3. Market Structure Differentiation
This correction revealed clear market segmentation: mainstream assets remained resilient, while small- and mid-cap tokens faced significant pressure, with leveraged liquidations intensifying the decline.

3. Reflection and Outlook: Short-term Volatility, Long-term Core Variables
This cryptocurrency correction serves as an “industry stress test.” Combining institutional forecasts, the short-term and long-term trends are markedly different:
1. Short-term (3-6 months): Downward oscillation, mainly watchful
Bitcoin is likely to continue oscillating downward due to market sentiment of “extreme fear,” unresolved leverage risks, ETF fund outflows, and regulatory uncertainties. Technical levels have broken through key supports at $80,000 and $70,000; $60,000 becomes a focal point. If broken, it may test $55,000–$58,000; if held, a technical rebound to $65,000–$69,000 is possible.
2. Long-term (1-3 years): Three core factors determine the direction
International unified regulatory framework implementation to eliminate uncertainty; major institutions like BlackRock reallocate funds to stimulate demand; Layer2 scaling technology adoption enhances Bitcoin’s utility; core infrastructure for mining and hosting equipment gains value.
3. Institutional Forecasts (Price at end of 2026)
Many institutions show a “long-term optimism, short-term caution” attitude, with specific predictions as follows:
Standard Chartered: $150,000
Citi Research: $143,000
21Shares: Baseline scenario $100,000–$110,000; Bullish scenario $150,000–$180,000

4. Key Takeaways:
Respect risks, adhere to compliance
Understand the linkage and essence
Respect leverage risks
Seize core industry opportunities

Market volatility can be sudden, but it also helps strip away noise and reveal the core value of assets. The impact on the crypto market is essentially a “stress test” of its resilience. Bitcoin’s history is one of alternating surges and crashes, with each epic correction accompanied by risk release and industry upgrade. The early 2026 correction was caused by multiple negative factors stacking up, leading to short-term oscillation but also long-term opportunities.