#WhenWillBTCRebound?

⚡ Current Market Snapshot
Bitcoin (BTC) remains in deep capitulation as of February 6, 2026 (07:03 AM , with price oscillating between $62,000–$66,000 after a series of sharp declines. Overnight trading saw BTC dip as low as ~$60,000–$61,000, with temporary spikes to ~$65,560 in some snapshots, marking ~9–15% losses in a single session.
This represents a 45–55% decline from the October 2025 all-time high ($126,000+), wiping out post-election gains and intensifying bearish pressure across crypto markets.

🏦 Macro & Catalyst Overview
Kevin Warsh Fed Nomination Impact
The recent nomination of Kevin Warsh as Fed Chair (late January 2026) has added hawkish sentiment to markets:
Emphasis on monetary discipline and smaller Fed balance sheet
Reduced QE/liquidity injections
Higher real interest rates
Accelerated QT (quantitative tightening)
Market Reaction:
Diminished expectations for aggressive rate cuts or a “Fed put”
USD strengthened (DXY up), pressuring risk assets
Crypto faced FUD surge, long liquidations (~$1–2B+), elevated panic-driven volumes, and cascading wick formations due to thinning liquidity

📊 Short-Term Outlook: Bearish Dominance, Oversold Signals Emerging
Current Market Dynamics
High-volume downside conviction: Daily volumes 100K–250K+ BTC equivalent
Leverage flush ongoing, BTC dominance rising as altcoins bleed harder
Extreme fear sentiment: Fear & Greed Index deep in the “fear” zone
Historically, such extreme fear often precedes sharp rebounds in BTC.
Technical Indicators
Daily RSI: ~17–18 (third-most oversold in BTC history, only behind 2018 bear bottom and 2020 COVID crash)
Oversold readings suggest exhaustion, making violent upside bounces possible if buyers step in

📌 Key Levels to Watch
Level Type
Range / Target
Notes
Support
$60,000–$63,000
Psychological zone; recent lows; break below could target $50K–$55K, worst-case ~$38K
Resistance
$70,000–$74,000
Recent pivot / Fib 0.5 retracement; reclaim above $74K–$77K may signal short-term rebound to $80K–$86K
Upside Targets (if rebound)
$80K–$100K
Near-term bounce; long-term ATH reclaim $126K+ or higher H2 2026 if macro flips bullish

⏳ Rebound Timing
Short-term: Bounce possible within days to weeks if $60K–$63K holds and buying volume picks up
Macro constraints: Fed tightening fears, QT acceleration cap upside
Prediction markets: ~90–95% probability of BTC dipping below $65K before recovery
Traders are advised to watch for exhaustion signs: hammer candles, liquidation flush end, and volume spikes.

📈 Medium-to-Long-Term Forecast (2026)
Bearish Scenario
$38,000–$75,000–$90,000 range if liquidity remains tight, no major stimulus, or prolonged risk-off phase
Analogous to Stifel crash scenario; conservative forecasts: ~$75K–$120K
Neutral/Consensus Scenario
$100,000–$150,000 by year-end if moderate rate cuts (~50 bps) priced in, institutional adoption continues, halving cycle effects persist
Many cluster around $110K–$143K–$175K
Bullish Scenario
$200,000–$225,000+ if Warsh delivers balanced policy, crypto legislation is favorable, or productivity boom lowers rates
Min/max optimistic averages: $130K–$153K

💹 Trading Strategies & Tactical Plans
Bearish / Defensive Approach
Short below $63K–$65K closes (targets $55K–$60K)
Hold cash/stablecoins
Stop-loss above recent highs if fading
Contrarian / Bullish Accumulation
Buy dips near $60K–$63K support if RSI remains oversold and volume exhaustion signals appear
Scale in gradually for potential rebound $80K–$100K
Overall Tactical Plan
Confirmation first: Daily close above $70K–$74K for longs, below $60K for more shorts
Monitor macro events: Warsh hearings, Fed policy, liquidation levels, and policy surprises
Local sentiment (Karachi forums/chats): Many see this as a shakeout clearing weak hands—exhaustion building, but patience required

🚀 Potential Rebound & Upside
Short-term: 20–50%+ gains possible from lows ($80K–$100K)
Optimistic 2026: $150K–$225K+ if macro conditions flip bullish
Near-term risk: More downside likely before a sustainable rally
Classic crypto cycles show that deep fear often precedes strong recoveries. Watch exhaustion indicators as the potential spark for the next leg up.

🗣 Market Pulse / Discussion Points
What local signals or key levels are traders eyeing this morning in Karachi?
Are liquidity flushes truly ending, or is more pain ahead?
How might Warsh’s upcoming Fed policy shift BTC trajectory in Q1 2026?

📉⚡ Bitcoin is testing its resilience. Extreme fear may be the setup for a violent bounce—but caution and patience remain essential.