Bitcoin consolidates without breaking, precious metals decline across the board: Price analysis and outlook amid cooling market risk aversion

Bitcoin and gold, the two major “digital gold” and “traditional gold,” are forming a new market landscape. Bitcoin’s price remains volatile around $76,858, with a 24-hour trading volume of only $1.5 billion, and market sentiment is neutral. Meanwhile, gold is quoted at $4,636.76 per ounce, down $256.44 intraday but still maintaining a strong overall momentum. This divergence is redefining the investment logic of safe-haven assets.

Market Performance

Currently, Bitcoin and gold exhibit significantly different market trajectories. According to Gate data, as of February 2, 2026, Bitcoin’s price hovers around $76,858, down 2.40% intraday, and has declined a total of 2.10% over the past 7 days.

In stark contrast to Bitcoin’s sideways consolidation, the gold market remains active. Although gold prices have pulled back from recent highs, they still operate at high levels, with XAUTUSDT (Tether Gold) quoted at $4,643.4, down 4.16% over 24 hours. Silver shows a similar trend, with XAGUSDT (Silver) at $78.86, down 7.42% over 24 hours. This divergence indicates that investor confidence and expectations for the two assets are changing.

Correlation Changes

Traditional investment theory often considers Bitcoin and gold as similar safe-haven assets, but this correlation is undergoing a fundamental change. Recent data analysis shows that the correlation between Bitcoin and gold has dropped from a historical level of 0.15-0.30 to -0.12. This shift reflects a reassessment of the attributes of both assets.

Institutional acceptance of Bitcoin is increasing, with many institutions quietly entering the Bitcoin market through “silent IPO” mechanisms. This trend suggests that Bitcoin is increasingly viewed as a technological innovation asset rather than merely a store of value. Investors are beginning to recognize that Bitcoin offers a technological hedge value, which grows with network adoption and use case expansion; whereas gold, with its scarcity and centuries-long monetary history, provides a physical store of value.

Bitcoin Price Analysis

Entering 2026, the Bitcoin market shows a complex pattern of bulls and bears. The supply structure indicates large holdings concentrated in the $90,000 to $117,400 range, forming an overhead resistance zone. The short-term cost basis for holders is approximately $99,100, which becomes a key point to watch for Bitcoin’s price movement.

From an institutional outlook, JPMorgan, based on a volatility adjustment model, predicts Bitcoin could reach $170,000 within 6-12 months. Standard Chartered has revised its 2026 end-year target for Bitcoin down to $150,000. However, the market is not unanimously optimistic; Galaxy Research Director believes the 2026 market is “too chaotic to predict,” while Fundstrat warns that market volatility could push Bitcoin down to the $60,000–$65,000 range.

Gold Upward Momentum

The gold market in 2026 demonstrates strong fundamental support. Central banks worldwide continue to increase gold reserves, especially China, which has increased its gold holdings tenfold over the past two years. This institutional demand provides solid support for gold prices. Besides central banks, institutional investors’ interest in gold is also rising. UBS notes that real demand for gold increased in 2025 and has revised upward its demand forecast for 2026.

Several financial institutions have raised their gold target prices. CITIC Securities expects gold to reach $6,000 per ounce in 2026, and silver to reach $120 per ounce. Royal Bank of Canada is more optimistic, predicting gold could hit $7,100 per ounce by year-end. UBS also raised its gold target price from $5,000 to $6,200 per ounce.

Reasons for Structural Divergence

The divergence in performance between Bitcoin and gold has deep structural reasons. Bitcoin’s value drivers are shifting from scarcity narratives to technological applications and network effects, while gold’s value continues to be supported by physical scarcity and its millennia-long monetary history.

In the Bitcoin market, corporate treasury demand provides some support for prices, but this support is phased rather than continuous. After ETF fund flows turned out at the end of 2025, recent inflows have resumed, indicating renewed institutional participation. Open interest in futures contracts has begun to rise again, reflecting a recovery in derivatives trading activity, which provides more liquidity for price discovery.

In contrast, the gold market is more affected by geopolitical risks, concerns over currency devaluation, and central bank buying patterns. Global trade tensions and regional conflicts have also stimulated safe-haven sentiment, pushing up precious metal prices and gradually spreading to other metals like non-ferrous metals.

2026 Bitcoin Price Forecast

There are significant disagreements among analysts regarding Bitcoin’s price trajectory in 2026, highlighting high market uncertainty. According to Gate’s forecast data, the average price of Bitcoin in 2026 could be $87,941, with a range between $51,885.19 and $126,635.04. Some institutions provide more optimistic predictions but also point out key risk factors. For example, JPMorgan strategists note that MicroStrategy’s large Bitcoin holdings and MSCI’s decision to include digital assets in its indices are two major short-term risks affecting Bitcoin’s outlook.

Options market pricing indicates that by the end of June 2026, the probability of Bitcoin reaching $70,000 or $130,000 is roughly equal; by the end of 2026, the chances of hitting $50,000 or $250,000 are also roughly equal. This wide range reflects the high uncertainty about near-term prospects.

Investment Strategy Considerations

Against the backdrop of diverging performance between Bitcoin and gold, investors need to reconsider asset allocation strategies. Traditionally viewed as similar safe-haven assets, Bitcoin and gold should now be seen as complementary rather than interchangeable investment options. Gold can continue serving as a “safe harbor” against currency devaluation and geopolitical risks, while Bitcoin can be a source of technological hedging and growth opportunities.

Investors should adjust their allocations of Bitcoin and gold based on their risk tolerance and investment goals. Those with higher risk appetite might consider increasing their Bitcoin exposure to capture its potential upside; while more conservative investors should increase holdings in traditional safe assets like gold.

Regarding investment timeframes, short-term investors need to monitor market volatility and technical indicators, while long-term investors should focus more on fundamentals and long-term trends. Regardless of the strategy, investors should stay attentive to market developments and adjust their portfolios accordingly.

As of February 2, 2026, Bitcoin’s price remains around $76,858, down 2.40% over 24 hours, while gold, after pulling back from highs, stands at $4,636.76 per ounce, maintaining overall strength. JPMorgan forecasts Bitcoin could reach $170,000 within 6-12 months, and CITIC Securities predicts gold could reach $6,000 per ounce in 2026. The divergence in safe-haven assets reflects a redefinition of value storage concepts—gold still shines in central bank vaults, while Bitcoin’s value shifts from mere scarcity to the practical application potential of blockchain networks.