What catalysts determine the price of Bitcoin in the context of trade conflicts

The current price dynamics of the first cryptocurrency are increasingly dependent on macroeconomic factors. According to leading analysts, significant growth in Bitcoin requires serious catalysts capable of changing the investment sentiment of both retail and institutional market participants.

According to macroeconomist Luke Groeman’s forecasts, a correction of Bitcoin’s price to $60,000 remains a realistic scenario amid escalating trade tensions between the US and the EU. Additionally, the international isolation of the United States and a possible economic recession could trigger a mass outflow of funds from the crypto asset market, including from institutional investors.

Growth Catalysts: What Events Could Change the Trend

The expert emphasizes that institutional investors are unlikely to become the main drivers for reaching new highs without a clear catalyst. In his words, the mere desire of influential investors is not enough — a strong fundamental impulse is needed to convince large capital to see the asset’s potential.

“If you expect institutional investors to push the price from $90,000 to $150,000, this is unlikely to happen without a serious catalyst. Institutional investors do not act like that — they will wait,” Groeman explained.

For such growth, corrections will need to overcome a gap of more than 65% from current levels. The main catalysts the expert cites are the adoption of the Clarity Act in the United States and a possible new round of quantitative easing by the Fed, which could support risk assets.

Institutional Demand: A Strong Signal Despite Turbulence

Kiy Eun Joo, CEO of the CryptoQuant analytics platform, points to relatively stable demand from large investors. In his assessment, American custodial wallets holding between 100 and 1000 BTC each serve as a reliable indicator of institutional interest in the asset.

Over the past twelve months, large investors have acquired 577,000 BTC worth $53 billion. This indicates that, despite volatility, capital inflows into the crypto sector continue. It is worth noting that the data also includes flows through spot ETF funds.

Spot ETFs Losing Capital: Normal Correction or Sign of Concern

According to the latest trading session, US spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds recorded a withdrawal of $708.7 million — the largest one-day outflow in two months. The IBIT fund from BlackRock lost $356.6 million, and Fidelity’s FBTC lost $287.7 million. A similar picture was observed in the Ethereum ETF segment with an outflow of $286.9 million, including $250.3 million from the ETHA fund.

BTC Markets platform analyst Rachel Lucas views such withdrawals not as a sign of systemic weakness but as classic portfolio rebalancing amid worsening macro conditions. When interest rates rise, geopolitical tensions increase, or unexpected volatility appears, institutional participants primarily reduce positions in highly volatile assets.

Price Stabilization and the Macroeconomic Factor

On January 21, Bitcoin’s price fell below $88,000 following a collapse in stock markets caused by tensions in trade relations. However, the quotes soon stabilized thanks to President Donald Trump’s statement about reaching an agreement on Greenland and deciding to postpone the imposition of customs duties on European imports until February.

The current Bitcoin price is around $84.44K, reflecting fluctuations between investor optimism and concerns about the macroeconomic situation. Vincent Liu, Chief Investment Officer of Kronos Research, noted: “Despite the challenging macro context, the crypto market demonstrates relative resilience as positions normalize.”

Thus, the future price dynamics of Bitcoin will largely depend on the emergence of specific macroeconomic catalysts capable of redirecting institutional capital and attracting retail investors back into the digital assets sector.