Why Optimism in BTC Options Went Unnoticed: Glassnode Analysis

Mid-January brought an unexpected turn — Bitcoin gained about 8% in just a few days. It seemed that this should have shifted market sentiment. Glassnode analysts noticed a certain spike in optimism in options contracts, but the conclusions turned out to be much more interesting than they might appear at first glance. The market seemed to play optimism for a day or two but did not believe in a true breakthrough.

Waves of optimism on the surface, doubts beneath

What happened to the options during the price increase? The asymmetry of weekly contracts (1W Skew) sharply moved out of the put-dominant zone to nearly neutral levels. This sounds like a serious shift in sentiment — demand for downside protection collapsed, and bullish bets increased. However, there is an important nuance here: a spike in demand for near-term call options is often mistakenly interpreted as market confidence. In reality, it is usually just a short-term speculative surge by scalpers who see a brief opportunity for profit but do not believe in a new trend.

Put/Call ratio: illusion of a breakout

The Put/Call Ratio fell from 1 to 0.4 — a quite impressive move indicating active buying of calls. But the main question experienced analysts ask is not “Did they buy calls?” but “How short-lived was this demand?” According to other signals from Glassnode, this demand was indeed a short-term phenomenon, not the start of a sustainable rally. The wave of optimism covered the market, but only the surface — the fundamentals remained untouched.

Monthly horizon tells a different story

If you narrow your view to weekly options alone, there is an temptation to declare a shift in sentiment. But looking at monthly contracts — and the picture changes sharply. While the 1W Skew plummeted from about 8% to a minimum of 1%, the 1M Skew only dropped from 7% to 4%. This is a critical difference: when looking a month ahead, the market clearly did not dismiss concerns about a price decline. Even amid a local BTC rally, participants continued to factor in the risk of falling — and as it turned out later, they were absolutely right in their skepticism.

Three-month bets: long-term optimism still absent

The picture becomes even clearer when examining three-month options. Over the quarter horizon, the Skew shift was minimal — less than 1.5%. This indicates that the main tilt remained toward puts, meaning long-term participants still expect a decline. Despite the short-term optimism that raged a week ago, no one hurried to revise long-term forecasts. This is a classic sign that the professional market remains skeptical about the price rise.

Volatility betrayed true intentions

The final touch to the market portrait was added by the dynamics of implied volatility. When BTC was rising, options market participants did not buy “emotion and volatility,” as they usually do during a real breakout and wave of optimism. On the contrary, they actively sold volatility. This behavior sharply differs from what happens during sustained impulses, when rising prices are accompanied by increased expectations of future fluctuations. Here, volatility decreased as the price rose — a reliable sign that participants used the rally to unload positions or for simple speculative gains.

Final verdict: optimism remains surface-level

Glassnode’s analysis shows a paradox of the current moment. Yes, there was short-term demand for a rally, and it was clearly reflected in weekly options. But on the horizons of a month and a quarter, the risk of decline continued to be priced in by the market. Volatility was traded as something achievable but unworthy of long-term purchase. One could say the market played “maybe a reversal,” but the “downside protection” policy was never truly deployed. Optimism arrived, but it did not settle in permanently.