The formula for calculating the Bitcoin cycle is "reversed": Why is 2026 different?

As of January 30, 2026, Bitcoin (BTC) is demonstrating an unusual phenomenon: it does not follow the technical scenarios that previously defined every major market peak. The question is whether the traditional cycle calculation formula remains valid in the new market context. To understand better, we need to revisit the warning signs from previous cycles.

Traditional Technical Pattern and Signs of Collapse

In the 2014, 2018, and 2022 cycles, a specific sequence of events signaled a sharp decline. The historical cycle calculation formula is based on three main factors: weekly closing price below the 100 SMA, followed by the crossover between the 100 EMA and the 100 SMA. This is considered the final confirmation before a severe downturn. However, unlike previous times, the current technical structure is showing a completely different picture.

Current Structure: When Technical Divergence Signals a New Trend

Despite recent volatility, the 100 EMA and 100 SMA lines still maintain a healthy upward arrangement. Instead of being breached, the price action is aggressively defending these moving averages. The key difference here is the absence of a bearish crossover signal – instead, we are witnessing a technical divergence phenomenon.

This divergence indicates that the 2026 cycle is being built on a new reference framework, different from previous cycles. This suggests that the traditional cycle calculation formula needs to be adjusted to reflect the changing market environment.

Institutional Buying Power: The Factor Changing the 2026 Cycle

From an in-depth analysis perspective, this difference originates from the absorption capacity of institutions. Major investors are actively intervening to prevent a historical collapse scenario, as evidenced by their protection of important moving averages. Instead of a typical bearish crossover, the market is restructuring with deep involvement from institutions.

Bitcoin’s price is currently at $83.20K, down 1.98% in the past 24 hours (updated at 17:04 on 01/30/2026). This price level remains within the protective zone of long-term moving averages, indicating that demand is still strong enough to prevent a collapse.

Conclusion: The 2026 Bitcoin cycle is following a new calculation formula. Instead of adhering to historically defined scenarios, the market is creating its own pattern, reflecting a fundamental change in participation structure. This is not only an unusual technical phenomenon but also evidence of a profound shift in market dynamics.