My macro inference on the US economy and monetary policy: The most likely scenario is that the "devirtualization to real economy" reform proposed by Trump-Washington cannot be realized because the US can no longer truly compete with China in the real economy, especially in manufacturing. This is fundamentally not a monetary policy issue but a chronic national problem. Cutting interest rates + rejecting QE will initially cause risk assets and safe-haven assets to jump due to the rate cut benefits, but then they will be pressured downward because of the Fed's hawkish stance on QE. Ultimately, this will lead to global liquidity being siphoned into the dollar and US Treasuries, causing liquidity shortages, and potentially triggering or about to trigger a global financial crisis. Signs of a financial crisis usually manifest as: the tail of long-term bonds, RRP approaching zero, anomalies in the MOVE index, and a surge in SOFR. If the hawkish stance persists, be prepared for the shock of a financial crisis. If early signs lead to concessions and easing, then the dollar will definitely head towards a form of de facto QE. The best timing for bottom-fishing risk assets like BTC, AI stocks, etc., is before or during the financial crisis, through DCA. The situation with gold is more complex; in the short term, it is driven by paper gold from institutions and retail investors, but in the long term, it is driven by central banks' strategic reserves. Gold bets on the multi-polarization of world currencies, and the essence of currency multi-polarization is a bet on China's manufacturing strength and comprehensive national power.