"Weekend News" Key Breakthroughs of Bitcoin and Ethereum and the Trump Tariff War Controversy

This week’s market行情 has experienced a complex trend under the dual influence of macro policies and technical factors. Both Bitcoin and Ethereum have fluctuated while challenging key resistance levels, and Trump’s latest announcement of tariff escalation policies has added considerable uncertainty to the market. Let’s review the core highlights of the past week.

Technical Trend Analysis: Repeated Confirmation of Key Levels

Bitcoin completed its first test of the $98,000 key level this week. After encountering resistance at this position, the short-term focus shifted to the stability of support around $94,500. The ideal technical scenario is for Bitcoin to absorb large-scale selling pressure within the $94,500 to $98,000 range, then break through $98,000, paving the way to challenge the target of $105,000.

However, given Trump’s recent frequent policy moves, we should also be alert to a second possibility—that is, a decline before the weekly close, forming a bullish long upper shadow candlestick pattern. If this occurs, Bitcoin may test the support around $90,800 again and then rebound.

Currently, Bitcoin is priced at $83,200 (down 1.49%), showing a clear retracement from the weekly high. This level indicates a stabilization process after testing strong support. Investors should closely monitor the market reaction after the US stock market opens on Monday.

News Impact: Trump Tariff War Escalates Again

The market initially expected a relatively calm period following economic data releases, but a series of sudden announcements by Trump completely disrupted this expectation. Not only did he announce a lawsuit against JPMorgan Chase, but more importantly, his stance on Greenland has escalated—announcing a 10% new tariff on Denmark, Norway, Sweden, France, Germany, the UK, and the EU, effective from February 1, and threatening to raise it to 25% on June 1 if negotiations for Greenland’s purchase do not progress.

The reason Trump is focused on Greenland is its strategic importance: it is a military gateway to the Arctic, a key shipping hub, and rich in critical minerals like rare earths. This is not the first time Trump has mentioned acquiring Greenland, but this time it is clearly serious, directly using his “trump card”—tariffs—as leverage in negotiations. Although there are two weeks before February 1, if negotiations stall, the escalation of tariffs could once again impact financial markets.

It is worth noting that Trump may have deliberately announced these policies just before Martin Luther King Jr. Day (when US markets are closed) to reduce direct market impact. After all, his political priority is to avoid triggering intense market volatility at critical times. Based on current performance, Bitcoin has shown relative resilience in the initial shock and has not experienced the expected violent fluctuations.

On-Chain Data Perspective: Whale Behavior Changes

On-chain data shows interesting changes in whale behavior. Large whales holding over 100,000 Bitcoins sold 1,893 yesterday and another 1,516 today. This is the first time since a significant buy-in on January 1 that they have chosen to sell during a retracement. This behavior suggests some large whales are beginning to hedge against the risk of Trump’s tariff escalation.

However, super whales (wallets with extremely large holdings) remain unfazed. These addresses currently hold 223,000 ETH, 1,000 BTC, and 510,000 Solana long positions, continuing to hold strongly, with an additional 20,000 ETH added yesterday. This reveals a clear internal divergence among whales—some institutions are hedging, while top holders remain confident.

Ethereum Technical and Holding Changes

Ethereum’s trend largely mirrors Bitcoin, successfully testing the weekly key support at $3,370. This level is crucial for challenging the previous support at $3,674, and initial resistance is normal. Currently, ETH is priced at $2,730 (down 2.76%), showing a retracement from the weekly high.

During Trump’s frequent policy moves, Ethereum’s trend depends more on Bitcoin’s performance. If Bitcoin drops sharply first, Ethereum may test the $3,157 to $3,200 range before rebounding.

Another notable data point is the change in whale holdings of Ethereum. The total holdings of whales with 10,000 to 100,000 ETH decreased from 31.6 million ETH at the end of December last year to 29.97 million ETH now, a reduction of about 1.6 million ETH. This figure is close to the current staked amount of BMNR tokens (1.7 million). In fact, this is not a whale sell-off but rather that these ETH are being transferred into staking protocols. As BMNR staking progresses, this number is expected to continue decreasing. Currently, whales hold a total of 4.17 million ETH, with about 40% staked.

Next Week’s Outlook and Risk Tips

Next Monday is Martin Luther King Jr. Day, and US markets will be closed for the day. This provides a buffer for Trump’s policy announcements and time for the market to digest the impact. Bitcoin has shown considerable resilience initially and has not experienced panic selling. The market reaction when US stocks open on Monday will be critical, and Trump’s tweets leading up to that may be the best indicator of Bitcoin’s trend.

Overall, Bitcoin and Ethereum are repeatedly confirming key technical levels, whale data indicates increased market divergence, and Trump’s tariff escalation introduces significant uncertainty for next week. Investors should remain vigilant but also recognize that top holders’ confidence remains stable. Wishing everyone a pleasant weekend, see you next week!