German Bund Yields Below Recent 10-Month Highs

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Germany’s 10-year Bund yield settled at 2.85%, retreating from near 10-month highs, as investors looked ahead to the European Central Bank’s meeting next week, where policymakers are expected to weigh the deflationary impact of a stronger euro on the policy outlook. The euro hit a 4½-year high above $1.20 at the end of January following US President Trump’s comment that he was unconcerned about the dollar’s recent decline. Meanwhile, ECB policymaker Martin Kocher cautioned that further euro strength could prompt the central bank to resume interest-rate cuts. Money markets reflected the shift in expectations, pricing in roughly a 30% chance of a rate cut by September, up from less than 10% a week ago, while the probability of a rate hike in April 2027 fell to 20%, down from 50%. On the economic data front, Germany’s economy grew 0.3% in Q4 2025, slightly above forecasts of 0.2%, providing modest support for the market outlook.

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