The five major institutions' outlook on the Federal Reserve's rate cuts in 2026 and tonight's meeting focus: four predict a 50 basis point cut this year, while JPMorgan expects to hold steady.

Deep Tide TechFlow News, January 28 — According to Golden Ten Data, the five major institutions’ outlooks on the Federal Reserve’s rate cuts in 2026 and the focus of this meeting are as follows:

Barclays Bank ① Rate Cut Forecast: Total of 50 basis points (June and December). ② Main Viewpoint: Expect the FOMC to signal that it is not in a hurry to cut rates further. The committee may indicate that the current risks of employment decline and inflation rise are becoming balanced. ③ Powell’s Statement: He is expected to reinforce the FOMC’s stance of not rushing to cut rates.

Bank of America ① Rate Cut Forecast: Total of 50 basis points (June and July). ② Main Viewpoint: Political factors may become a focus at the January meeting. The Federal Reserve will likely maintain its current stance, with no expected change in risk balance. ③ Powell’s Statement: The press conference may focus on political rather than policy issues. However, in terms of policy, current market pricing could bring unexpected dovish risks.

Citigroup ① Rate Cut Forecast: Total of 50 basis points (June and September). ② Main Viewpoint: If the next rate cut aims at policy normalization rather than addressing urgent risks, the decision-makers may seek broader consensus than in December last year, contingent on more clear progress in inflation. ③ Powell’s Statement: He is likely to emphasize that the three recent rate cuts have helped stabilize the employment market and that the current policy stance is sound, suitable for assessing its impact.

JPMorgan Chase ① Rate Cut Forecast: No rate cuts in 2026. ② Main Viewpoint: After completing three risk-managed rate cuts earlier, many FOMC members have indicated that now is an appropriate time to pause. ③ Powell’s Statement: He is expected to indicate that the current policy is sufficient to address the risks faced by the dual mandate and will avoid discussing various political issues involving the Federal Reserve.

Wells Fargo ① Rate Cut Forecast: Total of 50 basis points (March and June). ② Main Viewpoint: A strong argument is that the longer the FOMC waits to cut rates, the higher the threshold from an economic perspective to justify further easing. ③ Powell’s Statement: He is unlikely to hint at further easing at the next meeting in March. He is likely to be asked about the Department of Justice investigation, but responses are expected to be consistent with previous statements.