What Could Send Gold Prices Lower? Key Market Catalysts Ahead

Market analyst Giuseppe Dellamotta, as reported by Odaily, points to a critical juncture for precious metal valuations. While geopolitical tensions and underwhelming U.S. economic indicators have sustained the rally, multiple developments could trigger a significant decline in gold prices. Understanding these downside risks requires examining the specific catalysts that traders and investors are closely monitoring this week.

The Non-Farm Payroll Report: A Critical Test for Economic Data

This week’s U.S. non-farm payroll figures represent a pivotal moment for gold market direction. Previous employment data faced credibility challenges due to government shutdown disruptions, leaving investors eager for clearer economic signals. The incoming report will reveal whether labor market strength can challenge the bullish narrative that has driven prices higher. Robust employment figures could trigger a sharp pullback in gold prices, as investors would scale back their bets on imminent Federal Reserve rate cuts. The correlation is straightforward: stronger-than-expected economic data typically pressures safe-haven assets and precious metals valuations downward.

How Tariff Policies Could Reshape the Gold Narrative

The U.S. Supreme Court has scheduled this Friday to release its opinions on President Donald Trump’s proposed tariff framework. This ruling carries substantial implications for stagflation risk assessment. Should the court overturn the tariff measures, an easing of inflationary pressures could discourage demand for gold as a hedge, potentially driving prices into correction territory. Conversely, if tariffs remain intact or face partial restrictions, the underlying stagflation concerns that currently support precious metal demand would persist—likely preventing any significant downside movement but leaving upside potential more constrained.

Geopolitical Tensions: The Stabilizing Anchor

Regional and international uncertainties continue to function as a stabilizing floor beneath gold prices. These structural support factors mean that even if economic data disappoints or if court rulings prove unfavorable to tariff continuance, geopolitical conditions may prevent sharp declines. The interplay between multiple factors—macroeconomic signals, policy decisions, and international tensions—creates a complex scenario where gold prices could fall, but perhaps not dramatically, depending on which forces ultimately dominate.