Many traders' growth paths start from wanting to do everything and then moving towards knowing what not to do. The market offers infinite possibilities, but traders are limited; they should try to participate only in markets they are familiar with and can understand. Trading ultimately is a mirror reflecting how one faces uncertainty, pressure, and oneself.

Hello everyone, I am trader Gege. Let's review the previous thoughts. The previous article was updated on the 13th, when Bitcoin's price was around 92,000. The strategy was that although the 95,000 level was a previous resistance, after multiple tests, it was not shorted. Instead, short positions were taken in the 97,500-98,300 range, and the market indeed topped out around 97,900 before pulling back. The earlier articles have always emphasized a dividing line, which is the bottom of the rising trendline turning point. This is also a continuous article that has been moving upward with the market's oscillations. The high point prediction was quite successful.

After several days, I want to revisit this, perhaps a bit of a hindsight analysis, but the recent article update speed has been quite slow, and since the previous articles kept emphasizing this point, I will review it today. To get to the point, let's briefly talk about the cycle, then analyze the short-term trend from a technical perspective.

From a historical cycle perspective, we are currently in a bear market phase, as analyzed in the November article. To use a metaphor, based on the halving cycle trend, Bitcoin's history shows that it almost always explodes about a year after halving. For example, the last halving in May 2020 led to a peak around November 2021. This time, the halving is in April 2024, with a peak expected around October 2025. History does not repeat exactly, but it often has remarkable similarities.

Recently, besides the crypto market, other markets seem very lively, especially precious metals, as money flows into lively sectors. This is normal. Just joking, currently precious metals are like Little Sweetie, and the crypto market has become Madam Bull. Don't be discouraged; I also transitioned from the gold, oil, and commodities markets into crypto. Every change in asset status happens when people least believe in it.

In the short term, macro factors are indeed unfavorable for the crypto bulls. The S-Conflict, the risk of a US government shutdown, hawkish expectations, ETF outflows, geopolitical conflicts, and so on, all carry significant uncertainty. Blood-stained chips are not easy to pick up; the market is using the cruelest methods to change faith. The real bottom will be when corpses are everywhere and despair is complete. In the long run, to borrow a phrase similar to CZ's, recharge your faith: artificial intelligence is the future. It may not understand traditional financial systems, but it will definitely understand cryptocurrencies.

Regarding Bitcoin's technical analysis, there isn't much to say because its structure has not undergone substantial change. Overall, it remains within a large box. The charts also show that the recent articles' charts and lines haven't moved. On the monthly chart, there is a probability of forming a doji K-line again. On the weekly chart, if the real body K-line breaks below 90,000 again, then in the short term, focus on the previous minor resistance at 90,000-92,000, then the 95,000 level. As the upward trendline bottom-top turning point shifts, attention should now be on 99,000. This week, the weekly chart may close with a pin bar, so the first support is at 85,000-84,000, then at 80,000. If a breakdown occurs, refer to previous medium- and long-term buy points. Those who don't remember can review earlier articles. Today's article ends here; no specific strategy, just support and resistance reference for entry.

These suggestions are for reference only. Enter the market with proper risk control, and manage profit and stop-loss spaces yourself. For specific strategies, consult during live trading.

Alright, friends, see you next time. Wishing everyone continuous success and a bright future in the crypto world! More real-time advice will be sent internally. That concludes today's brief update. For more real-time suggestions from Auntie Bitcoin, find Gege.

Text / I am trader Gege, a friend willing to accompany you to rise again #BTC #ETH #PI