HTX DeepThink: When precious metals trend upward, the crypto market may be waiting for sentiment spillover

Deep Tide TechFlow News, January 26th, HTX DeepThink columnist and HTX Research researcher Chloe (@ChloeTalk1) analyzed that the macro main themes in the crypto market this week still revolve around three clues: the Federal Reserve holding steady, the resilience of the economy, and the strengthening trend of precious metals. The FOMC meeting on Thursday is highly likely to keep interest rates unchanged, with market focus on Powell’s tone and whether he leaves room in the dot plot or policy statements for further rate cuts in 2026.

From a macro perspective, the continued decline in inflation provides the Federal Reserve with patience. December CPI and core CPI both confirmed the downward trend of inflation, with official views considering tariff-induced price pressures as a one-time disturbance; meanwhile, the employment market shows a “neither expanding nor contracting” state. Against the backdrop of still-robust GDP growth momentum, this significantly reduces the urgency for policy shifts. This makes it unlikely for the Fed to release more aggressive easing signals in the short term.

For crypto assets, this means liquidity expectations are unlikely to further open up, but risk appetite has not been significantly impaired. The US dollar remains relatively weak under the influence of tariffs and geopolitical uncertainties, providing medium-term support for Bitcoin and the crypto market; however, if the FOMC does not signal unexpectedly dovish, the market is more likely to maintain high-level oscillation rather than quickly breaking out of a one-sided trend. Notably, the continued strength of precious metals is worth watching. Gold and silver exhibit a rare “rising self-consistency” feature—regardless of risk asset fluctuations, prices remain upward. This reflects structural supply and demand imbalances, trend capital intervention, and long-term re-pricing of fiat currency credit. Historical experience shows that after entering this stage, Bitcoin often exhibits a lagging effect, and is more likely to initiate the next phase of market evolution after precious metal sentiment spills over.