The quantum resistance competition begins, and the market has made a fatal mistake: why blockchains like Ethereum will monopolize the future

The anti-quantum competition has already begun, but the market’s understanding of this race is fundamentally flawed. Recent insights from Franklin Bi, General Partner at Pantera Capital, highlight the core of this misjudgment: traditional finance is severely overestimated, while blockchain is seriously underestimated. This is not just about technological upgrades but also about the power dynamics of crypto assets over the next decade.

The Market’s Dual Misjudgment

The Dilemma of Traditional Finance Upgrades

The market generally believes that Wall Street’s system can quickly adapt to anti-quantum technological upgrades, but this judgment is overly optimistic. The migration process of traditional financial infrastructure will be slow and chaotic, for a simple reason: these systems are deeply coupled, and a change in one part can affect the whole.

More importantly, the overall security of traditional financial systems depends on their weakest link. If any part develops vulnerabilities during the anti-quantum upgrade, the entire system faces risks. This is not a technical issue but a structural one—when thousands of independent financial institutions upgrade individually, coordination costs and risks increase exponentially.

The Upgrading Advantage of Blockchain

In contrast, blockchain technology possesses unique capabilities for upgrades. This is not just theoretical speculation but has historical proof. The successful completion of Ethereum’s The Merge upgrade is the best example—an intricate system upgrade involving thousands of nodes worldwide, which ultimately transitioned smoothly.

What does this capability imply? It means that if mainstream blockchains like Ethereum can complete anti-quantum upgrades within critical windows, they could evolve into “safe harbors” for data and assets in the quantum era. Meanwhile, traditional financial systems might fall into chaos during this process.

Practical Actions by the Ethereum Foundation

Theory needs empirical support. According to the latest news, the Ethereum Foundation has established a dedicated post-quantum security team led by Thomas Coratger, marking a strategic shift from research to public engineering. This is not just symbolic but a concrete investment:

• Bi-weekly developer meetings starting next month
• A $1 million Poseidon Award
• Building a multi-client developer network
• Planning ecosystem events in October

These measures demonstrate that Ethereum’s emphasis on anti-quantum security has reached the highest level. Investment institutions like Pantera Capital also emphasize the urgency of this.

The Mechanism of Gravitational Effects

Pantera’s core view is that: the security crisis brought by quantum computing might actually strengthen the “gravitational effect” of a few core blockchain networks. The logical chain is as follows:

When users and assets face security threats, they tend to flow toward networks that have already demonstrated upgrade capabilities and have robust security measures. Ethereum, having successfully completed complex upgrades like The Merge, has established a trust foundation. In contrast, smaller or less capable blockchains will be marginalized.

This is not just a technical competition but a confidence race. In uncertain times, users will vote with their trust for the most reliable options.

Personal Observations

This perspective reveals an important market reality: crises often accelerate market centralization. We have already seen this in other recent predictions from Pantera—by 2026, corporate crypto vaults will experience a “brutal reshuffle,” with the most capital-rich giants continuing to dominate Bitcoin and Ethereum allocations, while smaller participants will be acquired or phased out.

The anti-quantum race may accelerate this process. Blockchains with upgrade capabilities and capital strength will absorb more assets and users, while others fall to the margins. This suggests that the future crypto asset ecosystem might be more concentrated than we imagine.

Summary

The onset of the anti-quantum race is not merely a technical issue but a signal of power restructuring. Traditional finance faces difficulties in upgrading due to its complex structure, while blockchain, with its strong upgrade capabilities, is poised to become a “safe harbor.” The actions of the Ethereum Foundation prove that this is not just empty talk.

The ultimate outcome may be that a few blockchain networks with upgrade capabilities and capital strength will gain stronger “gravitational effects” in the quantum era, absorbing more assets and users. This process has already begun, and the market’s understanding of it is still far from sufficient.