This rebuttal is spot on, clearly exposing the issues with AI oracles. From the market requiring additional pricing model errors, to the fact that model outputs are inherently unstable and easily manipulated, and even traders simply can't handle LLM safety—each point hits the core. It also reveals the fundamental problem: prediction markets are not as simple as swapping in another AI component. Essentially, it's a mechanism design similar to judicial systems. Relying solely on LLM judges is too fragile; multi-agent adjudication is the right direction.
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This rebuttal is spot on, clearly exposing the issues with AI oracles. From the market requiring additional pricing model errors, to the fact that model outputs are inherently unstable and easily manipulated, and even traders simply can't handle LLM safety—each point hits the core. It also reveals the fundamental problem: prediction markets are not as simple as swapping in another AI component. Essentially, it's a mechanism design similar to judicial systems. Relying solely on LLM judges is too fragile; multi-agent adjudication is the right direction.