#黄金白银再创新高 #比特币相对黄金进入深度弱势 Bitcoin's short-term upside is limited, and the risk of consolidation is increasing. Outlook for 2026: macro risks and forecasts, market signals of caution

As Bitcoin's price continues to hover around $90,000 without breaking the psychological barrier of $100,000, its trend sharply contrasts with traditional safe-haven assets like gold and silver, which recently hit all-time highs. This divergence is not accidental but a significant signal of Bitcoin's evolving role within the global macro system.

Looking ahead to 2026, Bitcoin's prospects will be increasingly driven by multiple external factors such as macro liquidity, domestic US politics, and artificial intelligence capital cycles, with the market sending clear signals of caution.

Gold New High vs. Bitcoin Stagnation: A Macro Signal

Gold prices have surged to around $4,700 per ounce, and silver is approaching $94 per ounce, both hitting record highs. This trend reflects hedging behavior at the end of a cycle amid ongoing monetary uncertainty and rising political risks. In contrast, Bitcoin is still digesting previous volatility and has not kept pace with precious metals. This divergence highlights a shift in Bitcoin's trading logic: it is no longer solely driven by internal crypto narratives but increasingly influenced by overall liquidity, policy environment, and cross-asset capital rotation.

Bitcoin's Macro Transition and the Fading Four-Year Cycle

In Bitcoin's development history, the classic four-year halving cycle was the main framework for price fluctuations. However, as Bitcoin's market cap grows and institutional participation increases, this simple model is failing. The integration of Bitcoin with traditional finance—including the launch of spot ETFs, improved institutional custody solutions, and more regulated trading venues—has gradually reduced its volatility and improved liquidity during stressful periods. Bitcoin is shifting from a highly reflexive speculative asset to a risk asset more akin to macro-sensitive assets. It is increasingly correlated with growth assets like tech stocks, exhibiting more synchronized movements during monetary tightening or easing.

2026 Price Structure: Similar to Gold's Consolidation Phase

The current stage of Bitcoin can be likened to the performance of gold during macroeconomic transitions. Historical experience shows that when real interest rates begin to decline but uncertainty remains high, gold often undergoes a period of correction or long-term consolidation before resuming a long-term upward trend. Similarly, Bitcoin's short-term risks remain skewed toward downside or sideways trading.

Some analysts point out that the key resistance zone is between $100,000 and $105,000. If Bitcoin cannot effectively break through and hold above this range, it may continue the "post-halving adjustment" mode for most of 2026. This phase is typically characterized by high volatility, waning speculative interest, and deleveraging, rather than a sudden crash. In past cycles, similar adjustments could last several months until market sentiment gradually recovers.

Political Risks: The Impact of the 2026 US Midterm Elections

US politics is an often underestimated variable influencing Bitcoin's trajectory in 2026. In 2025, the cryptocurrency industry is in a relatively friendly policy environment, with clearer regulations boosting institutional confidence. However, as the November 2026 midterm elections approach, risks of policy shifts or legislative gridlock are rising.

Institutional investors often begin de-risking policy-sensitive assets 3-6 months before midterm elections. If this pattern repeats, speculative assets including cryptocurrencies could experience systemic capital outflows in 2026. This liquidity tightening is driven more by risk management than deteriorating fundamentals and aligns with Galaxy's forecast that "the market in 2026 may be flat and high-volatility rather than trending."

Macro Liquidity: The Impact of the AI Capital Spending Peak

Beyond political factors, the global liquidity environment—especially capital flows related to artificial intelligence—constitutes another key constraint. Several institutions predict that global AI infrastructure capital expenditure will peak in 2026, following years of aggressive investments in data centers and computing power that will gradually slow down.

Over the past two years, AI has absorbed massive risk capital, partially diverting funds that might have flowed into crypto markets. As AI infrastructure matures, focus shifts from investment scale to profitability and returns. The capital expenditure peak is often accompanied by liquidity tightening; if revenue growth cannot match prior investments, valuation compression and balance sheet pressures may ensue, pushing funds back into cash and safe assets like government bonds.

Notably, large-scale AI hardware investments in 2024-2025 will be depreciated in 2026, and even non-cash expenses will impact corporate profits and market sentiment. During periods of balance sheet stress, correlations among risk assets tend to rise, making Bitcoin not immune to these effects.

Market Caution Signals

The above macro dynamics are already reflected in market forecasts. The probability of Bitcoin reaching $100,000 in January 2026 has fallen to about 15%, while the chances of hitting higher targets like $105,000 or $110,000 are only single digits. Forecast markets require participants to "vote with real money" under strict settlement rules, and their prices reflect realistic assessments of volatility and liquidity rather than vague optimism.

Current probability distributions show traders expect the market to be range-bound with greater downside risk than upside potential. This does not necessarily indicate a structural bear market but reinforces the view that "early 2026 is more likely to see consolidation rather than a breakout."

Conclusion: From Narrative-Driven to Probability-Driven Maturity

Overall, the strength of precious metals, Bitcoin's sideways movement at key resistances, and the low expectations in forecast markets paint a cautious macro picture. This does not negate Bitcoin's long-term narrative value but clarifies that its path to realization will be more complex and deeply intertwined with traditional financial market volatility.

In 2026, Bitcoin may enter a phase dominated by macro liquidity, political cycles, and industry capital rotation.

In this environment, patience, balance sheet awareness, and sensitivity to macro conditions may be more important than mere narrative faith.

Market signals of caution may be unsettling, but from an asset maturity perspective, this is an inevitable "growing pain" as Bitcoin transitions from the fringe to the mainstream.