Ethereum faces 700 million level liquidation pressure; breaking through 3100 or holding at 2800 is the key

According to the latest news, if Ethereum breaks through $3100, the cumulative short liquidation strength on mainstream CEXs will reach 728 million; conversely, if it falls below $2800, the long liquidation strength will reach 704 million. Currently, ETH is trading at $2,960.94, positioned between these two key levels, and the liquidation risk in the derivatives market is brewing.

What Does Liquidation Intensity Mean?

First, it is necessary to understand the precise meaning of liquidation intensity. Liquidation intensity does not represent the exact number of contracts pending liquidation or the value of contracts being liquidated, but rather measures the relative importance of each liquidation cluster compared to nearby clusters. In other words, it reflects the market’s potential reaction strength when the price reaches a certain level, driven by liquidity waves.

Higher liquidation bars indicate that when the price hits that level, a stronger chain reaction will be triggered. This is because a large number of positions will be liquidated within the same price range, forming liquidity waves.

Current Situation Analysis

ETH’s current price is $2,960.94, about $140 away from the upper level of $3100, and about $160 away from the lower level of $2800. This means the market faces similar scale liquidation pressures in both directions.

Price Trend Background

From recent performance, ETH has increased by 1.92% in 24 hours but decreased by 10.73% over 7 days. This reflects that after a short-term rebound, the market remains in a longer-term adjustment phase. The latest report from Bybit indicates that leverage in the crypto derivatives market has significantly decreased compared to the end of 2025, which helps reduce forced liquidation risks but is still insufficient to eliminate liquidation pressure.

Practical Implications of Liquidation Risks

What does it mean that both directions have liquidation intensities in the billion-level?

• Breaking above $3100: A large number of short positions will be triggered, potentially causing liquidity waves and pushing prices higher
• Falling below $2800: A large number of long positions will be triggered, possibly causing chain liquidations and accelerating the decline
• Current position: In a relatively balanced but fragile state, any major negative or positive news could trigger unidirectional liquidations

Insights for Traders

This liquidation distribution tells us several key points:

• There are obvious “liquidation clusters” both above and below, which are potential liquidity concentration zones
• Breaking through $3100 or falling below $2800 could trigger strong market reactions
• The current price is between these two risk points, requiring cautious position management
• Similar liquidation intensities suggest that market perception of risk in both directions is roughly balanced

Summary

Ethereum’s derivatives market is brewing liquidation risks between two key levels. The liquidation strength for shorts at $3100 and longs at $2800 both reach the billion level, reflecting high concentration of positions within these two price ranges. ETH’s current price at $2,960.94 is not far from these critical points, meaning that a breakout or breakdown of either level could trigger strong liquidity reactions. For traders, understanding these liquidation distributions can help better assess market risks and opportunities.