BTC on the brink of liquidation cliff: Two key price levels determine $1 billion liquidation intensity

According to the latest news, Coinglass data shows that BTC is currently between two important liquidation thresholds. If it falls below $84,980, the cumulative long liquidation strength on mainstream CEXs will reach $1.098 billion; if it breaks above $93,628, the short liquidation strength will reach $1.056 billion. Currently, BTC is around $89,397, positioned between these two thresholds, making market risk assessment particularly important.

Liquidation Pressure Distribution: Longs Face Greater Risk

From the data, the liquidation strengths on both sides are roughly equal, both around $1.05 billion. However, it is noteworthy that the long liquidation strength is slightly higher than the short, indicating that long positions are relatively heavier in the current market.

Implications of the Current Price Position

BTC at $89,397 means:

• About $4,417 below the long liquidation threshold, a drop of approximately 4.9% could trigger large-scale long liquidations
• About $4,231 above the short liquidation threshold, a rise of approximately 4.7% could trigger short liquidations
• The distances on both sides are nearly symmetrical, indicating the market is in a relatively balanced but sensitive position

This symmetry suggests that market participants have differing views on BTC, with both longs and shorts employing significant leverage.

Impact of Recent Price Movements

Based on the latest data, BTC has fallen 6.28% over the past 7 days but has rebounded 0.20% within the last 24 hours. This volatility indicates fluctuating market sentiment. Notably, the 7-day decline is close to triggering long liquidations, implying the market has already approached a liquidation risk edge.

Market Risk Assessment

Possibility of Cascade Liquidations

If BTC price breaks below $84,980, the $1.098 billion long liquidation strength could be released rapidly, potentially triggering a chain reaction. Forced liquidation of large long positions would further depress the price, possibly activating more stop-losses. Conversely, breaking above $93,628 would similarly release short liquidation pressure.

Liquidity Considerations

A liquidation strength of around $1 billion is significant in the current market. According to data, BTC’s 24-hour trading volume is $3.055 billion, with liquidation strength accounting for about 35%. This suggests that once triggered, market liquidity is sufficient, but price volatility could be quite intense.

Key Points for Future Observation

In my personal view, BTC is currently in a relatively fragile position. Market focus should be on:

• Whether the recent downtrend can reverse (a 7-day decline of 6.28% needs a rebound for confirmation)
• Whether the $84,980 long liquidation threshold will serve as a support level
• Whether there is enough selling pressure resistance above $93,628
• Whether market participants will actively adjust leverage positions to hedge risks

Summary

BTC is currently balanced between two liquidation thresholds, with both long and short liquidation strengths in the billion-dollar range, indicating symmetrical risk. Data shows that long liquidation strength is slightly higher, suggesting that long positions are more heavily weighted. The recent 7-day decline of 6.28% has brought the market close to a liquidation risk edge, and the next move will directly determine whether large-scale liquidations are triggered. Investors should closely monitor the key levels of $84,980 and $93,628, as any breakthrough could trigger significant market volatility.