Stocks versus gold enter a critical zone that precedes recessions

Source: CritpoTendencia Original Title: Stocks versus gold enter a critical zone ahead of recessions Original Link: https://criptotendencia.com/2026/01/20/las-acciones-frente-al-oro-entran-en-una-zona-critica-que-precede-a-las-recesiones/ The U.S. stock market is once again in a precarious position when measured against the quintessential monetary asset: gold. The ratio between the S&P 500 and gold—a classic reference for assessing whether stocks are overvalued or undervalued in real terms—is currently at a level that has historically marked significant shifts in economic regimes.

Stocks are in a very fragile position when valued against gold. If this level is broken, it resembles previous occasions when it was broken, leading the United States into a recession (1973 and 2008). Recessions are shown in green on the chart.

This is neither a new nor isolated signal. It is a zone that appeared before two decisive moments for the United States: the 1973 recession and the 2008 financial crisis. In both cases, when this ratio lost support, the adjustment was not only stock market-related but also macroeconomic.

The level that separates stability from breakdown

Currently, the ratio hovers around 1.44. The key point is clearly defined: if sustained closes below 1.40 begin, the market could be entering an investment regime unseen in decades.

In simple terms, this would imply that gold is structurally surpassing stocks, something that rarely happens without underlying economic deterioration. It’s not just a temporary correction or tactical volatility, but a possible shift in reserve asset preferences.

The 2020 precedent and the intervention that prevented it

This same ratio was very close to breaking in 2020. The difference is well known: the Federal Reserve responded with one of the most aggressive monetary policies in modern history. Rates were brought to zero, massive balance sheet expansion, and unlimited liquidity.

That move did not resolve the imbalance but managed to postpone it. Practically, it “kicked the can” several years ahead. The market survived, but at the cost of distortions that still persist today.

The question is whether that rescue can be repeated.

A Fed with less room and a different context

The current scenario is very different. Past inflation, political pressure, and institutional wear significantly reduce the Federal Reserve’s reaction capacity. Added to this is a key factor: Jerome Powell is likely to be replaced in May 2026, but that change is still far off.

Until then, there are no clear signs that the Fed is willing—or able—to repeat an intervention on the scale of 2020. Rates remain a delicate tool, and monetary credibility today weighs more than aggressive expansion.

A silent regime change

If the stocks/gold ratio drops below the current level, it does not necessarily mean an immediate collapse. What it could signal is the beginning of a transition: an environment where real assets regain prominence, financial valuations compress, and growth ceases to be the sole market driver.

This type of regime is not common for most current investors. In fact, many have never operated in a context where gold leads for years ahead of stocks.

Markets rarely warn with loud headlines. Sometimes, the warning is in a chart that almost no one watches. And historically, this has been one of the most uncomfortable.