Behind the whale earning nearly $100 million in 4 days: institutions are precisely bottom-fishing during extreme market panic

According to the latest news, a certain whale/institution has completed a precise swing trading operation over the past 4 days: four days ago, they sold 10,000 ETH at approximately $3,321; subsequently, when the price dropped to around $2,966, they bought 50,013 ETH through OTC channels, totaling about $148 million, with a cumulative swing profit of approximately $98.18 million. Behind this operation reflects an important market signal: retail investors are panicking and fleeing, while institutions are quietly accumulating.

Precise Swing Trading Logic

Whale’s Trading Details

This trading logic is very clear: the whale sold 10,000 ETH at a relatively high level, then took advantage of market panic to buy back significantly more, netting an increase of 49,013 ETH—equivalent to using the proceeds from the sale to buy more than 5 times the amount. Such operations require precise market timing and substantial capital reserves.

Market Panic Background

The whale’s operation coincides with a period of extreme market panic. According to relevant data, the current Fear & Greed Index has fallen to 24, indicating extreme fear. ETH’s performance during this cycle:

• Down 2.18% in the past 24 hours
• Down 10.69% over the past 7 days
• Current price: $2,953.57

U.S. stocks have evaporated $1.3 trillion in a single day, crypto market cap shrunk by $150 billion, geopolitical risks and macro uncertainties are jointly pushing asset prices lower. In this environment, most retail investors are choosing panic selling, while institutions are taking the opposite position.

More Than One Whale Bottom-Fishing

This whale’s operation is not an isolated case. According to recent reports, several large players have been actively buying ETH:

• Trend Research borrowed $70 million USDT from Aave to purchase 24,555 ETH, currently holding 651,310 ETH, worth about $19.2 billion
• Another OTC whale, 0xFB7, bought 20,000 ETH via FalconX and Wintermute, valued at approximately $58.8 million
• These operations all occurred around January 21, during the most panic-stricken period

Multiple institutions bottom-fishing simultaneously reflect a consensus: current prices are already attractive.

Deep Changes in Market Structure

Behind this bottom-fishing phenomenon also lies an important shift in market structure. According to the latest analysis from market makers like Wintermute:

• The traditional 4-year bull cycle has ended
• Market liquidity is concentrated in mainstream coins like BTC and ETH, with significantly reduced spillover effects to altcoins
• The phase driven by retail investors, high volatility, and meme coins has ended
• The market is transitioning from a speculative phase to a allocation phase, shifting from retail-driven sentiment to institutional positioning

In this context, institutions’ positioning in ETH is not just short-term swing trading but also a recognition of the medium- to long-term value of such fundamental assets.

Key Factors for Future Trends

From the perspective of whale and institutional positioning, their confidence in the current price is relatively high. However, whether the market can truly emerge from extreme panic depends on several key factors:

• ETF capital flows: Previously, BTC experienced a rebound driven by ETF inflows; institutional allocation for ETH depends on the attitude of traditional finance
• Macro environment: Whether tariffs, geopolitical risks, and other uncertainties will continue to disturb the market
• Retail sentiment recovery: Whether institutional bottom-fishing can boost retail investor confidence

In my personal view, reverse positioning by institutions during extreme panic is often a valuable signal, indicating they believe current risks have been sufficiently priced in. But this does not mean prices will rebound immediately; the market may need some time to digest negative sentiment.

Summary

This whale’s operation, earning nearly $100 million in four days, essentially reflects an important market phenomenon: retail investors flee in panic, while institutions execute precise accumulation. Multiple large players bottom-fishing ETH simultaneously indicates their recognition of the value of such assets at current prices. This also hints at a broader trend of market shift from retail-driven to institution-led. The current market is in extreme fear, but the contrarian actions of institutions suggest that risk is often released during panic. The key going forward will be observing ETF capital flows, macroeconomic conditions, and retail sentiment recovery.