Ethereum liquidation pressure imbalance, $1.481 billion in short risk vs. $803 million in long pressure

According to the latest news, Ethereum is currently facing asymmetric liquidation pressure. If ETH breaks above $3,096, the cumulative short liquidation strength on mainstream CEXs will reach $1.481 billion; conversely, if it falls below $2,808, the long liquidation strength will be $803 million. Currently, ETH is priced at $2,950.76, positioned between two liquidation lines, with market sentiment leaning bearish. This situation warrants close attention.

Asymmetric Distribution of Liquidation Pressure

Up and down risk comparison

From the data, the short liquidation strength above is 1.84 times the long liquidation below. This means that if the price breaks above $3,096, the market will face a larger liquidity surge. According to Coinglass’s definition, higher liquidation bars indicate a stronger reaction due to liquidity shocks when the price reaches those levels.

Why is the pressure higher on the upside

According to recent information, in the past 24 hours, CEXs experienced a net outflow of 38,600 ETH, with Binance outflow of 33,900 ETH and Coinbase Pro outflow of 9,714 ETH. The continued withdrawal sentiment reflects market participants fleeing, which is common in bearish environments. Meanwhile, the funding rates on mainstream CEXs and DEXs show a generally bearish outlook on ETH, with Binance’s ETH funding rate turning negative.

Against this backdrop, short positions are accumulating, and once the price breaks upward, forced liquidations of shorts will generate a greater liquidation strength.

The Dilemma at the Current Price

ETH’s current price of $2,950.76 is near the midpoint between the two liquidation lines at $3,096 and $2,808. Recent trends show clear pressure: a 1.40% decline in the past 24 hours and an 11.14% decline over the past 7 days. This downward trend reinforces bearish market sentiment.

From a technical perspective, the current price is about $142 away from the lower liquidation line at $2,808, and about $145 from the upper liquidation line at $3,096. Although these distances appear symmetrical, they conceal asymmetric risks — the long liquidation strength downward is weaker ($803 million), while the short liquidation strength upward is stronger ($1.481 billion).

Bearish Market Sentiment Consensus

Based on the latest data, a clear bearish consensus has formed. Negative funding rates, continued withdrawals, and larger short liquidation strength all point in the same direction. In such an environment, the downside risk may be underestimated because the market is already prepared for a decline. Conversely, an upward breakout could trigger a larger market reaction.

Future Focus

Key attention should be paid to the movements of these two levels. If ETH can hold above $3,000, it may gradually ease bearish pressure and eventually break through the $3,096 liquidation line. However, considering the current bearish sentiment and ongoing withdrawals, testing $2,900 or even $2,808 downward is equally possible.

Summary

Ethereum is currently facing asymmetric liquidation pressure, with the upward short liquidation strength ($1.481 billion) far exceeding the downward long liquidation ($803 million), reflecting accumulated short positions in the market. Coupled with bearish funding rates, persistent withdrawal sentiment, and recent downward trends, the market remains short-term bearish. The current price of $2,950 is situated between two key liquidation levels; any breakout in either direction could trigger significant market reactions. Investors should closely monitor these levels at $3,096 and $2,808, as they will determine the next market direction.