Spot gold today directly broke through the 4940 level, with a daily increase of over 2%. This is not something that was pulled up randomly. The underlying logic is quite clear— the US dollar index fell below the 103 integer level, coupled with last week’s initial jobless claims data exceeding expectations, the market’s bets on a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in March have surged to over 70%. Additionally, the US December PCE data will be released tonight, and inflation stickiness remains a concern, which becomes a dual factor supporting the strength of gold prices.

From the K-line chart, the 15-minute moving averages are in a complete bullish arrangement, and trading volume has also increased. During pullbacks, volume clearly shrinks, indicating continuous capital inflow. My judgment is that this wave is not a short-term impulse but a sustained trend driven by the combined resonance of rate cut expectations and risk aversion sentiment.

For specific operations, those with higher risk appetite can lightly enter long positions in the 4910-4915 range, with a stop loss below 4900, targeting the 4950-4960 zone; if you prefer a more conservative approach, wait until the gold price stabilizes at the support levels of 4890-4900 before entering. Pay particular attention to tonight’s PCE data—if the data weakens significantly, gold prices may continue to rise; conversely, if the data shows strong resilience, be prepared for the risk of a correction or pullback.