Let's see what the market is doing now——Bitcoin has surged past 90,000 multiple times, each time being hammered down even harder. This is not some accumulation phase; it's clearly someone rushing to unload.

Why have I been watching the 85,000 level? Because 90K is already played out. Going up gets hammered down, not normal volatility, but outright rejection. This is not a breakout point; it's a trap. Leverage hasn't been fully shaken out yet.

Over 1 billion USD in long positions have been wiped out, yet the longs still hold the majority—indicating the pain point isn't deep enough, and some people are still dreaming. Institutions are not involved in taking the other side.

With the basis narrowing and CME open interest decreasing, arbitrage opportunities are gone. Who would still take orders above 90K? In the end, only retail investors are stubbornly holding on. 85K is the real first hurdle. Without breaking this level, longs are unwilling to admit defeat. Once it hits 85K, market sentiment will collapse immediately, and leverage will explode in a chain reaction.

The current market logic is simple: no need to wait for bad news; as long as no new buyers step in, the price will slide toward 85K on its own.

As for whether the bull market is over, I can't say for sure. But if you're still buying above 90K, you're betting against the market structure with faith—yet this structure is now dragging the price downward. A sharp drop could happen at any time.

Instead of risking it here, it's better to change your approach. A stable income strategy can provide some safety. When the market direction is unclear, it's best to preserve your capital first. A decline in the market is actually an opportunity to buy, but that opportunity only favors those with enough bullets.

Remember a harsh fact: in a bull market, losing money happens faster than in a bear market.