ARK predicts Bitcoin will reach $760,000 by 2030, with three major drivers reshaping the crypto market landscape

ARK Invest’s latest “Big Ideas for 2026” report presents a bold yet logically coherent forecast for the crypto market: by 2030, the digital asset market could reach $28 trillion, with Bitcoin accounting for about $16 trillion, corresponding to a price of approximately $760,000. This prediction reflects a deeper trend—Bitcoin, DeFi, and tokenized assets are evolving from speculative tools into asset classes formally embraced by institutions, and this shift could become the main theme of the crypto market in 2026.

Institutional Maturation: From Retail Pricing to Asset Allocation

The core logic of the ARK report centers on the rapid increase in institutional holdings. According to the latest data, Bitcoin held by US spot ETFs and listed companies has risen to 12% of the total supply, up from 8.7% at the beginning of 2025, a growth of 3.3 percentage points in just one year. Behind this seemingly small number lies the continuous absorption of circulating supply by institutions.

The significance of this structural change is that, with supply fixed (Bitcoin’s total cap at 21 million), as institutions, ETFs, and corporations keep absorbing circulating supply, the pricing power shifts from retail sentiment to asset allocation logic. In other words, Bitcoin is no longer primarily priced by short-term traders but is increasingly incorporated into institutional long-term asset allocation frameworks.

The Three Main Drivers in Action

Bitcoin: Reduced Volatility, Outperforming on a Risk-Adjusted Basis

According to ARK’s analysis, Bitcoin’s volatility has significantly decreased in 2025, and its risk-adjusted returns have outperformed Ethereum and Solana for most of the period. Currently, Bitcoin trades at about $89,914, with only a 0.50% increase in the past 24 hours, but the 6.62% weekly decline reflects a short-term correction.

From an institutional perspective, this “maturity” is precisely what makes Bitcoin attractive—lower volatility means easier integration into traditional portfolio models.

DeFi: Sustainability Behind Record Revenues

In 2025, DeFi applications generated a record $3.8 billion in revenue, with one-fifth of that coming from January alone. Notably, some smaller protocols have monthly revenues exceeding $1 million. This indicates that DeFi’s revenue-generating capacity is expanding from leading applications to a broader ecosystem.

The latest data shows tokenized assets on Ethereum exceeding $40 billion, another sign of DeFi ecosystem maturity.

Tokenized Assets: From $19 Billion to $11 Trillion — The Imagination Space

This may be the most imaginative of the three drivers. In 2025, tokenized assets totaled $19 billion, but ARK predicts that by 2030, this could reach $11 trillion, accounting for about 1.38% of global financial assets. The growth is based on:

• Institutional products like the BlackRock BUIDL fund
• Tokenized gold innovations from issuers like Tether and Paxos
• Gradual implementation of sovereign digital securities

According to Li Xuqiang, founder of EDENA Capital Partners, a mature regulatory framework and interoperable institutional networks will drive sovereign digital securities to reshape global capital formation, and tokenization markets could become a core driver of real-world economic activity.

Regulatory Clarity: From Prediction to Reality

The report emphasizes that regulatory clarity will determine whether innovation can translate into mainstream applications. This is not a new insight from ARK, but in the current US policy environment, this variable may be more important than ever.

From a personal perspective, the specific direction of US policy in 2026—especially regarding cryptocurrencies—will directly impact the realization of these forecasts. While geopolitical uncertainties still exert pressure on prices, recent developments such as Trump withdrawing threats of tariffs on Europe have short-term boosted market sentiment.

Summary

ARK’s forecast sketches a clear picture: Bitcoin, DeFi, and tokenized assets are no longer three separate tracks in the crypto market but are interconnected pillars reinforcing each other. The increase in institutional holdings from 8.7% to 12% may seem subtle but signifies a fundamental shift in asset allocation logic. Currently, Bitcoin’s price of about $900,000 compared to the $760,000 forecast for 2030 suggests limited upside, but considering cyclical factors and accelerated institutional adoption, this forecast deserves serious consideration. The key will be the specific evolution of the regulatory environment in 2026—this will determine whether the forecast can be realized in the market.