In January 2026, the market presents an interesting contradiction: attempts to push higher are hitting walls, while the bottom is quietly being built.

From the sellers' perspective, selling pressure is gradually diminishing. This creates conditions for the price to break through the current trading range's upper boundary. But this opportunity is not handed for free — the price is gradually approaching the $98,000 mark. This level has special significance: a batch of recent investors bought in at this price, forming a quite active "balance point" of selling pressure.

Looking at the on-chain structure, it still appears weak overall. The price is hovering around key cost bases, but there is still no firm confirmation signal from long-term holders. On the supply side, pressure remains — recent investors face resistance above, limiting the sustainability of rebounds. Any upward attempt is likely to trigger a new round of selling.

Spot market capital flow shows some positive signs. Selling pressure on leading trading platforms has eased, but buying activity remains cautious, far from a full-scale restart. Funds moving in and out of digital asset reserves are scattered and driven more by events, without forming a coordinated buying force. This state limits overall demand stimulation.

Participation in derivatives is quite limited. Futures trading volume is shrinking, and leverage operations are cautious. The options market is under short-term pressure, with short-term implied volatility reacting to risk events, while medium- and long-term volatility remains stable. Hedging demand, after a brief spike, has returned to normal.

Another detail: traders' gamma positions are currently skewed towards being short, which weakens the natural support for price stability, increasing market sensitivity to liquidity shocks.